But when the AP poll can tell you exactly which team will cut down the nets in April, it might as well be Grays Sports Almanac from Back to the Future II. Here's the latest AP poll, released every Monday:
1) Syracuse
2) Ohio State
3) Kentucky
4) Louisville
5) North Carolina
6) Baylor
7) Duke
8) Xavier
9) Connecticut
10) Missouri
11) Marquette
I only have the top 11 because excluding Syracuse in 2003, (Carmelo Anthony ain't walking through that door) every championship team of the last 15 years has been in the top 11 in the AP poll in week 6. The last 15 champions have also been from BCS conferences, so say goodbye to Xavier.
Syracuse
Ohio State
Kentucky
Louisville
North Carolina
Baylor
Duke
Connecticut
Missouri
Marquette
Fourteen of the last 15 winners had also been to a Final Four within the last seven seasons. That takes care of Marquette, Missouri, Baylor and Syracuse. We're left with:
Ohio State
Kentucky
Louisville
North Carolina
Duke
Connecticut
National title winners also have great guard play. Some are lottery picks and solid NBA players like Richard Hamilton and Shane Battier. Some never sniff NBA playing time like Duke's Jon Scheyer and Florida's Lee Humphrey. But they were all great in college. Humphrey never really missed from beyond the arc.
Ohio State has Aaron Craft. I got a chance to watch him play last Saturday, and he's the best guard I've seen this year. He's smooth on offense and a pest on defense. He's grabbed at least 3 steals in 6 games this season and is averaging 9 points and 5 assists.
Kentucky has 3 perimeter guys -Michael Gilchrist, Marquis Teague and Doron Lamb- who will be in the NBA sooner rather than later. Any one of the trio can take over a game, but Lamb is the only experienced Wildcat. And he's only a sophomore. Kentucky has enough talent to win it all but when they don't, a lack of experience will be the reason.
Many experts, including the guys at Rivals.com, have North Carolina guard Kendall Marshall as one of the nation's best point guards.
Duke has Austin Rivers, who's cockiness might only be matched by his ability to make defenders look really, really bad.
Shabazz Napier of Connecticut has stepped out of former 1st team All-American Kemba Walker's shadow and is quietly getting 15 points and 6 assists a game.
Louisville's Peyton Siva is good, but not quite on the same level as the players above.
That leaves us with:
Ohio State
Kentucky
North Carolina
Duke
Connecticut
Repeating as champs -even with the same roster- is a tall order. Losing a unanimous 1st team All-American will make Uconn's hopes futile.
Ohio State
Kentucky
North Carolina
Duke
For John Calipari and Kentucky, winning a title with as many freshman as he plays every year will be tough as well. And Calipari is quietly gaining a reputation as a terrible late-game coach. In the 2008 championship game against Kansas, he was up 3 with 10 seconds left. He said he wanted to foul to avoid Kansas attempting a 3. Didn't happen.
On Saturday against Indiana, Calipari and No. 1 Kentucky were up 2 with 5 seconds left. He said he wanted to foul to avoid Indiana attempting a 3 (not sure why you foul up 2, but he's the pro, not me). Didn't happen.
I'm not betting on Calipari and a group of freshman to win it all, ever. Moving on..
Ohio State
North Carolina
Duke
North Carolina and Duke have a 4:1 edge in titles over the entire Big 10 the last 15 years. Advantage: ACC
North Carolina
Duke
The average ranking of the eventual champion in the AP's week 6 poll the last 15 years? 5th.
The 5th ranked team this week?
