Calipari

Sometime Sunday during Kentucky's press conference leading up to Monday's National Championship game, esteemed Boston Globe columnist Bob Ryan asked John Calipari about possibly winning his first national title. 

Calipari dodged it better than Floyd Mayweather when asked to fight a real opponent.

I'm not sure how many times a person can say “It's not about me” until it actually is about them, but John Calipari is probably in that neighborhood, if not parked in that imaginary driveway.

A top 10 -if not top five- coach just one game away from his first national title, of course people wanted to know how it would feel. But Cal wanted nothing to do with it.

“It's about these players,” he'd say. “It's a big deal to my friends and family because they want it so bad."

And maybe he truly believes that. He's said publicly that Final Fours and National Titles aren't a deal breaker for him or his legacy. He even called the 2010 NBA Draft “The best day in school history” when five Kentucky players were selected in the first round.

He told a warm and fuzzy story Sunday about how sending 50 players to the NBA would trump any personal accomplishments.

But he can do both. He just did. 

And what did he have to say?

"It's over now.  I can get about my business of coaching young people and not have the drama of all the other stuff."

The NCAA should apologize for interfering Calipari's boys-into-men routine with its pesky little tournament.

My theory on why Cal won't acknowledge his personal accolades might be more off than Kansas' shooting against his Kentucky defense Monday night, but I don't think so.

Calipari knows most people don't like him, and he doesn't like that.

So he tells us its all about the kids. And his family and friends and the fans and his dog and everyone else but him, because that's what nice people are supposed do.

Except when it backfires, and everyone knows you're full of it.

Towards the end of Calipari's stint at Memphis he was spitting out guys to the NBA on a regular basis. He had more top classes on the way but decided to leave for Kentucky. Of course he did, because when you're a head coach at a Conference USA school and Kentucky gives you a contract, you sign it. But the NBA players were coming to Memphis and his apparent Utopian dream of watching high school players turn into Lottery picks was a reality.

Derrick Rose, anyone?

Maybe Calipari left Memphis because he thought the NCAA was sniffing around. Maybe he wanted to coach at one of the best schools in the country. Maybe both, but definitely one.

But apparently admitting he actually did something for himself wouldn't help his public persona. Unfortunately for Calipari, he tries so hard to be liked that it backfires in every city but the one he coaches in at that time. So he tries harder and it only gets worse.

John Calipari went to Kentucky to get the best high school players each year and guide them to the NBA, there's no denying that. But he also went to Kentucky for nights like Monday when he could sit atop college basketball with the sport's all-time winningest program. The sooner he admits that, the better. It can't hurt.

He won't, though, because it's not about Calipari. Don't believe him? He'll tell you again. And again. And again, four times to be exact in his post-game press conference.

“You're not answering my question John. How would it feel?” Ryan asked.

“I don't know what else to say.” Of course not, because it's all about the kids.

Yeah, right.

This is How it Should Be

You won't find a pair of college basketball fanbases more rabid than Kentucky and Kansas.

Both will be in New Orleans for the Final Four this weekend, a sign that there is in fact a basketball god somewhere. And just for good measure, the little guys weren't invited this time. Sure, VCU, Butler, and George Mason were nice stories. But Cinderellas are like a good movie with a terrible ending, and the Final Four is no place for a terrible ending.


-With all due respect to Detroit and Indianapolis, New Orleans is not Detroit or Indianapolis.

                                                            Detroit

                                                          Not Detroit

-We have 4 BCS-conference schools and 2 Blue Bloods for just the second time since 1997. Louisville would be atop the next tier of all-time programs, just outside Blueblood status and Ohio State has been to the Final Four three times now since 1998.

-Rick Pitino and his white suits will be in the Hall of Fame really, really soon.

Bill Self and John Calipari will probably join him at some point, and Thad Matta has become a top 15 coach at Ohio State.

-Kentucky and Louisville is one of the best rivalries in the sport, possibly third after Duke-Carolina and Kansas-Missouri.

-Rick Pitino and John Calipari don't like each other, which is always fun. Last October, Calipari said Kentucky is "the only real program in the state," conveniently forgetting the school with then 8 Final Fours and 2 national championships. Pitino responded with this:
"Four things I've learned in my 59 years about people: I ignore the jealous, I ignore the malicious, I ignore the ignorant and I ignore the paranoid."

-As noted, Kansas and Kentucky are the two best fanbases in the country. Kansas fans took up about 85% of the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis last Sunday against North Carolina. Mizzou, Iowa State, and Kansas State were the only road games I remember this season where KU fans weren't the majority. Kentucky fans apparently consumed even more of the Georgia Dome last weekend as well, and both fanbases will be ever-present on Bourbon Street this week.

-There's Bill Self, who's looking to become just the 5th active coach with multiple national titles. This KU team, whose bench consists of a walk-on, a former walk-on, and a transfer from Loyola-Marymount had no business being this good this year. It speaks to a few things: 1) Self is that good. He's won a ridiculous 8 consecutive Big 12 Regular Season titles and has won 83% of his games at KU. Self has coached more seasons at KU than he has losses in Allen Fieldhouse.  2) The Law of Averages: When you're a top seed nearly every year (1 seed 4 of the last 6 years, lower than a 3 seed just once in Self's tenure) the Final Four appearances will start to add up. Self's pace is just 1 year behind Coach K with his 2nd Final Four and 1st National Title. K achieved those numbers in his 8th year at Duke, Self is in his 9th at KU. That's not to say Self is the next Krzyzewski, but the pace he's on is blistering.

-Ohio State's Thad Matta is in his 8th season in Columbus and while he's not normally mentioned with the elite coaches in the country, he could change that perception with a couple of wins in New Orleans. He coached the Buckeyes in the Title game in 2007, losing to Florida, and is slightly favored to knock off Kansas on Saturday, which I think he will.


Cinderella is fun on those drunken Thursday and Friday afternoons of the first round. But now she's where she should be, watching the final games at home like everyone else.
 

Tournament Perceptions

Between Pat Forde picking 15-seeded Detroit to knock off Kansas and Mizzou and Duke both losing to 15-seeds for just the 5th and 6th times ever in the tournament, it got me thinking: Do people's perceptions of teams in the tournament really hold any water? Kansas is usually the first team mentioned when March Upsets are brought up and rightly so. Bill Self's struggles with mid-majors are somewhat perplexing. He's won 8 straight Big 12 titles, been to 4 elite 8's and has a National Title. But 4 of his 7 Tournament losses have come against schools who's biggest basketball accomplishment is beating Kansas in the NCAA Tournament. But Self isn't much different than any other coach.

The NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Here's how Kansas has done since then:

They've missed the tournament just one time, in 1989. They currently have the longest NCAA Tournament appearance streak with 23 straight years in the dance.

Final Fours: 7
Titles: 2
Outperformed for seed (4 seed advancing past Sweet 16, 2 seed advancing to Final Four, etc): 7 times, or 26% of the time.

Underperformed for seed:(1 seed losing before Final Four, 2 losing before Elite 8, etc): 11 times,  42%.

Played to Seed: 8 times. 30%.

Top 4 seed: 22 times

Bad 1st round losses: 2

Mizzou's loss to Norfolk State isn't on here because Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky are still playing. It was the second top-two seed for Mizzou and first two-seed in the modern era.

Outperformed for seed: 4 times, 23%.

Underperformed for seed: 3 times, 17%.

Played to seed: 10 times, 58%

Top 4 seed: 5 times.

Bad 1st round losses: 2

Missed Tournament 10 times

While Kansas has under-performed at a higher rate, they were also a top 4 seed 17 more times. It's obviously given them many more opportunities to under-perform rather than over-perform. Kansas has, however, over-played their seed at a higher clip as well. And you have to ask yourself, would you rather be in a position to be upset by a multi-directional school with a budget the size of a 7th grade girls team, or not be in the tournament at all? Obviously the bad losses stick out and make for good punchlines, but at least you gave yourself a chance to play for a championship. The Tigers have only had the chance to be upset 8 times since 1985, not counting this year's loss. When it comes to the Tournament, only Duke can match KU's 28 appearances in the modern era.

The Blue Devils have the most impressive stretch of any of the teams listed, with Final Fours in every year from 1988-1992 and capping it off with back-to-back titles in 91 and 92.

Final Fours: 11

Titles: 4

Outperformed for seed: 6 times, 23%.

Underperformed for seed: 13 times, 50%.

Played to seed: 7 times, 27%

Top 4 seed: 23 times

Bad 1st round losses: 0

Kentucky is atop the all-time wins list and has been fairly consistent in the modern era, but nowhere near Kansas or Duke.

Outperformed for seed: 4 times, 17%.

Underperformed for seed: 8 times, 34%.

Played to seed: 11 times, 47%.

Top 4 seed: 16 times.

Bad 1st round losses: 0

Missed Tournament 4 times

North Carolina was favored to play for the National Championship this season before point guard Kendall Marshall's fractured hand hampered those dreams.

Outperformed for seed: 2 times, 8%.

Underperformed for seed: 8 times, 33%.

Played to seed: 14 times, 58%

Top 4 seed: 21 times.

Bad 1st round losses: 1

If you like going to the Tournament as a high seed every year since the first Bush administration, go with Kansas or Duke. If you want to play to your seed and limit many crazy surprises, pick Carolina. And if you're Mizzou, you might want to read this before talking about other schools' apparent Tournament Woes.

 

What I Think I Think

* I still think Tom Brady will go down as the greatest quarterback of all-time. But he'll need to win another Super Bowl to cement that status. There's a reason Dan Marino set and holds a ton of passing records but is never really in the G.O.A.T discussion: No rings.

* I think we've had more Bracketology this year than any other.  It's a small part of one of the many reasons college basketball gets it and college football doesn't. The first week of college football is one of the best sports weekends of the year. It's awesome until about Thanksgiving. Then fans have to ask ridiculous, time wasting questions like 'why does a computer determine our champion'? Anyway, college basketball gets it. Is a 68-team, single elimination tournament the best way to determine a champion? Of course not, but it's the most exciting and will never be short of $$$.

*I think if you put the ugliest college basketball players in a group, Anthony Davis would be the most talented, by far.

* I think if you're on Twitter, you have to follow Jay Bilas.

* I think Duke is the most vulnerable potential 1-seed. Followed by Kansas and Missouri.

*I think if anyone but Bill Self or Frank Haith wins the National Coach of the Year Award, something went wrong.

*I think the Texas Rangers edge closer to the Buffalo Bills and lose another World Series this season. This time to the Phillies or Marlins.

*I think Seattle will have an NBA team in 5 years. Probably the Hornets or Bobcats.

*It would never happen, but I think every Big 4 sports league would be better with 2-3 less teams.
NFL: Panthers, Buccaneers, Jaguars
NBA: Bobcats, Hornets, Timberwolves, Raptors
MLB: Nationals, Blue Jays
NHL: Any team in Florida, Georgia, either Carolina, Arizona, Southern California and Tennessee.

*I think Hockey Announcers are the best announcers.

*I think college basketball conference tournaments are dumb, and nothing more than an extra money grab. Ever heard of an NFC East tournament before the playoffs? How about an American League Central tournament in September?

*I think people need to stop with the Jeremy Lin Puns.

Brady is the Best

I'll start this by saying I've never been a Tom Brady fan. His dating supermodels and lack of scandals is rather annoying, and this post probably means he comes out next week and throws 3 interceptions and loses.



Like any other great athlete, Tom Brady's legacy will only get better with time. It's not a coincidence that nearly without exception, a top 10 Greatest of All-Time list features about 8 guys who haven't played in 15 years. And if the guy has been retired for 40 years and the only things you've heard about him are romantic story-telling about just how great he was, even better. Or worse. It's the Lynn Swann and Joe Namath rule.

So it makes sense that when lists of the Greatest quarterbacks of All-Time are hashed out, Joe Montana and John Elway are usually at the top. They played 15-25 years ago and we get to hear how great they were every year around this time. And they are obviously two of the best of all time. But this guy is better.

This should probably wait until after the Super Bowl to see if Brady grabs another ring, but it doesn't really matter. How many statistical categories will Brady have to hold over Elway and Montana before him being considered the best of All-Time isn't a crazy thought? He already has more Super Bowl wins than Elway and a win next Sunday will tie him with Montana at 4, in fewer seasons than both.

How about winning percentage?
Brady: 77.9
Montana: 71.3
Elway: 64.0

Brady also has 7 more wins than Montana in 5 less starts. He is 24 wins behind Elway, but he's started 72 less games, exactly 4.5 seasons I have a weird feeling Brady can average 6 wins for the next 4.5 years (or 12.5 wins in 2 years) to pass Elway.

Completion percentage:
Brady: 63.8
Montana: 63.2
Elway: 56.9

Touchdowns:
Brady: 300 and counting
Elway: 300
Montana: 273

Passing Yards:
Elway: 51,475---222.8 per game
Montana: 40,551---247.2 per game
Brady: 39,979---251.4 per game

Brady will pass Montana early next season sometime. He needs just over 11,000 yards to pass Elway, or 2,874 for the next 4 seasons. For reference, and excluding the 2008 season he sat out with an injury, Brady's thrown over 3,500 yards every season since 2002. He threw for over 5,000 yards this season and around 4,000 the 2 years prior.

And for Super Bowls, Montana's 4-0 mark is something special and a Brady loss next week won't look great going up against that record. But Brady is only the 2nd quarterback to start 5 Super Bowls (tied with Elway, who was just 2-3 in the game).

The argument for Elway is that he dragged 3 teams to the Super Bowl all by himself. And he did, but he lost. Brady had probably the greatest offensive season ever in 2007 and had just one loss, but it just happened to be the last game of the season, meaning it's nothing but a footnote on his resume. It's the same reason Dan Marino is usually left out of the G.O.A.T discussions because he never won a Super Bowl.

Elway finally broke through and won a pair of Super Bowls before retiring. He had another pair of great seasons on great teams that featured a Pro Bowl running back in Terrell Davis and Hall of Fame pass catcher Shannon Sharpe. And Montana had the luxury of throwing balls to a game named Jerry Rice.

Brady did have Randy Moss in 2007 but he didn't even win one of his 3 Super Bowls that year.

-On his 2001 Super Bowl winner, Brady's top 2 receivers were Troy Brown and David Patten.
-2003 featured Brown and David Givens.
-2004 was David Patten and Daniel Graham.
-And this season his best targets are Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. Hardly Jerry Rice, Dwight Clark and Shannon Sharpe.

Quick, find Rob Gronkowski:

Here are some more Brady postseason records:
-Most consecutive wins (10)
-Most completions in one Super Bowl (32)
-Only quarterback to start and win 3 Super Bowls before his 28th birthday
-Most career Super Bowl completions (100)

Brady's surpassed -or is on an easy pace to surpass- nearly every statistical category held by the two guys largely considered as two of the best ever. He's done it with average talent at best that made guys like Sharpe and Rice look even better than they were, and he still has a handful of years left.

Now it's time for him to go 11-for-25 with 2 interceptions next Sunday night.

Rob Lowe is Now Breaking NFL News

Yes, that Rob Lowe. Today on Twitter he said this:

"Hearing my fave, #18 Peyton Manning will not return to #NFL. Wow"

Then he asked NFL Network analyst Rich Eisen: "My people are saying Manning will retire today. What do you hear?"

"Colts fans, let's hope my info is wrong. Don't like being wrong, but this time... I'm hoping."

So Rob Lowe now has "people." Maybe it's this guy, a costar on his tv show, Parks and Rec?

To be fair to the former White House speech writer, he was the first person Colts owner Jim Irsay followed on Twitter. So maybe they have some sort of relationship. No way, though.

And No Way says Manning's dad, Archie, to ESPN guy Chris Mortensen:

"Archie Manning laughed when he heard @RobLowe said Peyton will retire, “Noooo…he ain’t retiring. I think he would’ve told me.”"

How long until ESPN has "sources say Manning to retire" on their bottom ticker? 

Of course Rob Lowe doesn't have any NFL "people." But he does have a Lifetime movie coming out this Saturday that nobody but women over the age of 40 knew about, so I guess it worked. White House speech writer, personal PR man. Rob Lowe can do it all.

(Insert Andrew Luck Pun Here)

It seemed inevitable that the Colts would be staring down an opportunity to draft Andrew Luck in April's NFL draft. Did you really think the Browns, when given a chance to really be rewarded for being bad -something they've been great at for well, ever- would really be the best bad team when it mattered most? Of course not. The football gods wouldn't allow it.

So now I'll take a totally 100% original angle and discuss what the Colts should do with that No. 1 pick. Peyton Manning is 35 with four years remaining on a 5-year, $90 million contract. He gets around $23 million the next two seasons and around $10 a year the final two seasons.

The contract, which was signed last summer, made him the richest player in the game and was one of the biggest contracts of all time. Not an awesome move by the Colts considering his age, but understandable considering he's one of the five best quarterbacks of all time. It's not a contract you give to a 35-year old free agent but perfectly fine considering what Manning has done in Indianapolis since 1998.

But if what they say is true -and it is- that this is a business, it's time to tell Manning just that and send him on his way. Manning isn't coming off a leg or arm injury. He had cervical spinal surgery, and that sounds painful. He can probably get back to pain-free activities by next fall and be back to his normal self -or close to it- for the next couple of years. But can you say he's not one awkward hit or facemask away from being shelved for good? Of course not, and I don't think anyone can say that.

So you have a 35 year old quarterback who's already played 13 seasons and you're paying him the most money of any player in the history of the sport. For reference, here's how many years a few fellow Hall of Fame quarterbacks played:

Joe Montana: 13 years with the 49'ers, 2 with Kansas City
Steve Young: 13 years with the 49'ers, 2 with Tampa Bay
Troy Aikman: 12 years with the Cowboys
Jim Kelly: 11 years with the Bills

The odds say Manning has a few years left at best. Throw in the neck injury and it's any one's guess, and with $67 million still owed to him, keeping him for the remainder of his contract looks like a terrible business decision at this point.You can't cut a Hall of Famer like Manning 1 year into a 5-year deal and act like nothing happened, but his injury -as well as having the chance to draft the best quarterback prospect in ages- gives the Colts plenty of reasons to release Manning and not look bush league. Players hold out and teams cut them at any point, it's the way of the NFL world.

And while Manning is one of the best ever, it's fair to say he's won as many Super Bowls as Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer. His little brother Eli has as many Super Bowl rings as he does. Not to say any of the guys are anywhere near Peyton's ability, but his talents aren't bringing the Colts Super Bowl after Super Bowl, and it's hard to imagine a 36 or 37 year old Manning hoisting another Lombardi Trophy before retiring -on his own will or not.

So if he's not going to win another Super Bowl, what exactly are the Colts gaining with 3-4 more years of Manning at $18 million a season?

Andrew Luck won't be as good as Peyton Manning. He won't go to 11 Pro Bowls and he probably won't be a first ballot Hall of Famer.

But 10 years of Luck looks a lot better (and cheaper) than 3 or 4 years of a late-30's Manning.