Tournament Perceptions

Between Pat Forde picking 15-seeded Detroit to knock off Kansas and Mizzou and Duke both losing to 15-seeds for just the 5th and 6th times ever in the tournament, it got me thinking: Do people's perceptions of teams in the tournament really hold any water? Kansas is usually the first team mentioned when March Upsets are brought up and rightly so. Bill Self's struggles with mid-majors are somewhat perplexing. He's won 8 straight Big 12 titles, been to 4 elite 8's and has a National Title. But 4 of his 7 Tournament losses have come against schools who's biggest basketball accomplishment is beating Kansas in the NCAA Tournament. But Self isn't much different than any other coach.

The NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Here's how Kansas has done since then:

They've missed the tournament just one time, in 1989. They currently have the longest NCAA Tournament appearance streak with 23 straight years in the dance.

Final Fours: 7
Titles: 2
Outperformed for seed (4 seed advancing past Sweet 16, 2 seed advancing to Final Four, etc): 7 times, or 26% of the time.

Underperformed for seed:(1 seed losing before Final Four, 2 losing before Elite 8, etc): 11 times,  42%.

Played to Seed: 8 times. 30%.

Top 4 seed: 22 times

Bad 1st round losses: 2

Mizzou's loss to Norfolk State isn't on here because Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky are still playing. It was the second top-two seed for Mizzou and first two-seed in the modern era.

Outperformed for seed: 4 times, 23%.

Underperformed for seed: 3 times, 17%.

Played to seed: 10 times, 58%

Top 4 seed: 5 times.

Bad 1st round losses: 2

Missed Tournament 10 times

While Kansas has under-performed at a higher rate, they were also a top 4 seed 17 more times. It's obviously given them many more opportunities to under-perform rather than over-perform. Kansas has, however, over-played their seed at a higher clip as well. And you have to ask yourself, would you rather be in a position to be upset by a multi-directional school with a budget the size of a 7th grade girls team, or not be in the tournament at all? Obviously the bad losses stick out and make for good punchlines, but at least you gave yourself a chance to play for a championship. The Tigers have only had the chance to be upset 8 times since 1985, not counting this year's loss. When it comes to the Tournament, only Duke can match KU's 28 appearances in the modern era.

The Blue Devils have the most impressive stretch of any of the teams listed, with Final Fours in every year from 1988-1992 and capping it off with back-to-back titles in 91 and 92.

Final Fours: 11

Titles: 4

Outperformed for seed: 6 times, 23%.

Underperformed for seed: 13 times, 50%.

Played to seed: 7 times, 27%

Top 4 seed: 23 times

Bad 1st round losses: 0

Kentucky is atop the all-time wins list and has been fairly consistent in the modern era, but nowhere near Kansas or Duke.

Outperformed for seed: 4 times, 17%.

Underperformed for seed: 8 times, 34%.

Played to seed: 11 times, 47%.

Top 4 seed: 16 times.

Bad 1st round losses: 0

Missed Tournament 4 times

North Carolina was favored to play for the National Championship this season before point guard Kendall Marshall's fractured hand hampered those dreams.

Outperformed for seed: 2 times, 8%.

Underperformed for seed: 8 times, 33%.

Played to seed: 14 times, 58%

Top 4 seed: 21 times.

Bad 1st round losses: 1

If you like going to the Tournament as a high seed every year since the first Bush administration, go with Kansas or Duke. If you want to play to your seed and limit many crazy surprises, pick Carolina. And if you're Mizzou, you might want to read this before talking about other schools' apparent Tournament Woes.