Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Brady is the Best

I'll start this by saying I've never been a Tom Brady fan. His dating supermodels and lack of scandals is rather annoying, and this post probably means he comes out next week and throws 3 interceptions and loses.



Like any other great athlete, Tom Brady's legacy will only get better with time. It's not a coincidence that nearly without exception, a top 10 Greatest of All-Time list features about 8 guys who haven't played in 15 years. And if the guy has been retired for 40 years and the only things you've heard about him are romantic story-telling about just how great he was, even better. Or worse. It's the Lynn Swann and Joe Namath rule.

So it makes sense that when lists of the Greatest quarterbacks of All-Time are hashed out, Joe Montana and John Elway are usually at the top. They played 15-25 years ago and we get to hear how great they were every year around this time. And they are obviously two of the best of all time. But this guy is better.

This should probably wait until after the Super Bowl to see if Brady grabs another ring, but it doesn't really matter. How many statistical categories will Brady have to hold over Elway and Montana before him being considered the best of All-Time isn't a crazy thought? He already has more Super Bowl wins than Elway and a win next Sunday will tie him with Montana at 4, in fewer seasons than both.

How about winning percentage?
Brady: 77.9
Montana: 71.3
Elway: 64.0

Brady also has 7 more wins than Montana in 5 less starts. He is 24 wins behind Elway, but he's started 72 less games, exactly 4.5 seasons I have a weird feeling Brady can average 6 wins for the next 4.5 years (or 12.5 wins in 2 years) to pass Elway.

Completion percentage:
Brady: 63.8
Montana: 63.2
Elway: 56.9

Touchdowns:
Brady: 300 and counting
Elway: 300
Montana: 273

Passing Yards:
Elway: 51,475---222.8 per game
Montana: 40,551---247.2 per game
Brady: 39,979---251.4 per game

Brady will pass Montana early next season sometime. He needs just over 11,000 yards to pass Elway, or 2,874 for the next 4 seasons. For reference, and excluding the 2008 season he sat out with an injury, Brady's thrown over 3,500 yards every season since 2002. He threw for over 5,000 yards this season and around 4,000 the 2 years prior.

And for Super Bowls, Montana's 4-0 mark is something special and a Brady loss next week won't look great going up against that record. But Brady is only the 2nd quarterback to start 5 Super Bowls (tied with Elway, who was just 2-3 in the game).

The argument for Elway is that he dragged 3 teams to the Super Bowl all by himself. And he did, but he lost. Brady had probably the greatest offensive season ever in 2007 and had just one loss, but it just happened to be the last game of the season, meaning it's nothing but a footnote on his resume. It's the same reason Dan Marino is usually left out of the G.O.A.T discussions because he never won a Super Bowl.

Elway finally broke through and won a pair of Super Bowls before retiring. He had another pair of great seasons on great teams that featured a Pro Bowl running back in Terrell Davis and Hall of Fame pass catcher Shannon Sharpe. And Montana had the luxury of throwing balls to a game named Jerry Rice.

Brady did have Randy Moss in 2007 but he didn't even win one of his 3 Super Bowls that year.

-On his 2001 Super Bowl winner, Brady's top 2 receivers were Troy Brown and David Patten.
-2003 featured Brown and David Givens.
-2004 was David Patten and Daniel Graham.
-And this season his best targets are Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. Hardly Jerry Rice, Dwight Clark and Shannon Sharpe.

Quick, find Rob Gronkowski:

Here are some more Brady postseason records:
-Most consecutive wins (10)
-Most completions in one Super Bowl (32)
-Only quarterback to start and win 3 Super Bowls before his 28th birthday
-Most career Super Bowl completions (100)

Brady's surpassed -or is on an easy pace to surpass- nearly every statistical category held by the two guys largely considered as two of the best ever. He's done it with average talent at best that made guys like Sharpe and Rice look even better than they were, and he still has a handful of years left.

Now it's time for him to go 11-for-25 with 2 interceptions next Sunday night.

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