College Basketball Math

College basketball polls in December are as meaningful as September baseball in Pittsburgh. On a good day.

But when the AP poll can tell you exactly which team will cut down the nets in April, it might as well be Grays Sports Almanac from Back to the Future II. Here's the latest AP poll, released every Monday:

1) Syracuse
2) Ohio State
3) Kentucky
4) Louisville
5) North Carolina
6) Baylor
7) Duke
8) Xavier
9) Connecticut
10) Missouri
11) Marquette

I only have the top 11 because excluding Syracuse in 2003, (Carmelo Anthony ain't walking through that door) every championship team of the last 15 years has been in the top 11 in the AP poll in week 6. The last 15 champions have also been from BCS conferences, so say goodbye to Xavier.

Syracuse
Ohio State
Kentucky
Louisville
North Carolina
Baylor
Duke
Connecticut
Missouri
Marquette

Fourteen of the last 15 winners had also been to a Final Four within the last seven seasons. That takes care of Marquette, Missouri, Baylor and Syracuse. We're left with:

Ohio State
Kentucky
Louisville
North Carolina
Duke
Connecticut

National title winners also have great guard play. Some are lottery picks and solid NBA players like Richard Hamilton and Shane Battier. Some never sniff NBA playing time like Duke's Jon Scheyer and Florida's Lee Humphrey. But they were all great in college. Humphrey never really missed from beyond the arc.

Ohio State has Aaron Craft. I got a chance to watch him play last Saturday, and he's the best guard I've seen this year. He's smooth on offense and a pest on defense. He's grabbed at least 3 steals in 6 games this season and is averaging 9 points and 5 assists.

Kentucky has 3 perimeter guys -Michael Gilchrist, Marquis Teague and Doron Lamb- who will be in the NBA sooner rather than later. Any one of the trio can take over a game, but Lamb is the only experienced Wildcat. And he's only a sophomore. Kentucky has enough talent to win it all but when they don't, a lack of experience will be the reason.

Many experts, including the guys at Rivals.com, have North Carolina guard Kendall Marshall as one of the nation's best point guards.

Duke has Austin Rivers, who's cockiness might only be matched by his ability to make defenders look really, really bad.

Shabazz Napier of Connecticut has stepped out of former 1st team All-American Kemba Walker's shadow and is quietly getting 15 points and 6 assists a game.

Louisville's Peyton Siva is good, but not quite on the same level as the players above.

That leaves us with:

Ohio State
Kentucky
North Carolina
Duke
Connecticut

Repeating as champs -even with the same roster- is a tall order. Losing a unanimous 1st team All-American will make Uconn's hopes futile.

Ohio State
Kentucky
North Carolina
Duke

For John Calipari and Kentucky, winning a title with as many freshman as he plays every year will be tough as well. And Calipari is quietly gaining a reputation as a terrible late-game coach. In the 2008 championship game against Kansas, he was up 3 with 10 seconds left. He said he wanted to foul to avoid Kansas attempting a 3. Didn't happen.

On Saturday against Indiana, Calipari and No. 1 Kentucky were up 2 with 5 seconds left. He said he wanted to foul to avoid Indiana attempting a 3 (not sure why you foul up 2, but he's the pro, not me). Didn't happen.

I'm not betting on Calipari and a group of freshman to win it all, ever. Moving on..

Ohio State
North Carolina
Duke

North Carolina and Duke have a 4:1 edge in titles over the entire Big 10 the last 15 years. Advantage: ACC

North Carolina
Duke

The average ranking of the eventual champion in the AP's week 6 poll the last 15 years? 5th.

The 5th ranked team this week?

Big 12 Predictions

I wrote this column today for the paper. I figured I would elaborate more on here where I'm safe from word counts, editors, and anyone who wouldn't let me reference Anthony Davis' unibrow.

The Big 12 is down this year, no doubt about it. Kansas doesn't look like Kansas, Baylor is still looking for a point guard and nearly everyone else would be happy with just an NCAA tournament appearance. Here's how the teams will finish:

Baylor: The Bears are loaded in the frontcourt, led by 6-foot-11 sophomore forward Perry Jones III, who shocked experts when he bypassed the NBA draft and returned for a second season in Waco. Senior forward Quincy Acy averaged 12.4 points per game last year and five-star recruit Quincy Miller joins both players down low. Good point guard play could take the Bears to New Orleans and the Final Four, and that looks to be coming from two newcomers. Highly-touted JUCO transfer Pierre Jackson will get his shot, but how many JUCO transfers make immediate impacts at the high division I level? I can't think of any. Four-star recruit Deuce Bello should also be good, and one of those guys will have to be consistently productive if the Bears want to upend Kansas. Whatever happens, Baylor will have the most athletic team on the court every single game this year. Some of the most athletic guys I've seen in a long time.

Kansas: The seven-year run of Big 12 regular season titles has to end eventually. With a thin frontcourt and only one seasoned veteran guard in the backcourt with senior Tyshawn Taylor, the Jayhawks will struggle with scoring at times. There’s still talent there, though. And last time I checked, Bill Self is still the coach and they still play in Allen Fieldhouse. Another conference title wouldn’t shock many people. The thing with Kansas is, if you switched their roster and coach with Baylor's, the Bears would be overwhelming favorites to win the conference this year. Say what you will about Bill Self's March upsets, the guy knows how to win the Big 12. And he doesn't lose in Lawrence, either. He's coached 8 seasons at Kansas and has 7 home losses. A lot of that home-court advantage begins before the game even starts. ESPN's Jason King calls it the best pregame ritual in college hoops, and I tend to agree.

Texas A&M: The Aggies return six of their eight leading scorers and junior forward Khris Middleton will vie for All-Big 12 honors this season. Returning senior point guard Dash Harris will also be huge for the Aggies, who look to make their 7th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance. 

Texas: They’re young, no doubt. But junior guard J’Covan Brown is the real deal and with the departure of Dogus Balbay, who seemed to always have the ball in his hands, Brown will get plenty of chances to score. High school All-American Myck Kabongo joins the Longhorns, creating quite the duo with Brown on the perimeter. Unfortunately, Texas fans won't see how this team comes together this season because Texas fans don't know they have a basketball team. Home games in Austin look like an early June day game between the Marlins and Nationals.

Oklahoma State: Upperclassmen guards Keiton Paige and Jean-Paul Olukemi both average double figures in career scoring. High school All-American LeBryan Nash is a scoring machine on the wing and will be great when he adjusts to the college level. But back to Keiton Page. I'm still trying to figure out how he plays basketball in the Big 12. He's 5-foot-6 on a good day.

Iowa State: The Cyclones are the toughest team to predict here because head coach Fred Hoiberg welcomes in a slew of transfers. Chemistry will be an issue but talent is there, including former Michigan State guard Chris Allen and former Minnesota forward Royce White. Look for the Cyclones to be gelling by January. Hoiberg grew up in Ames and played four seasons at Iowa State in the early 1990's. He was nicknamed "The Mayor" after receiving a handful of votes in the 1993 Ames mayoral election, and it's the best nickname in college sports.

Missouri: If head coach Mike Anderson hadn’t left and senior forward Laurence Bowers hadn’t suffered an injury that ended the season for him, the Tigers would be a top-three contender this year. But that’s not the case. With a new system and without its best interior defender, Missouri will struggle to guard anyone down low this season. 

For some reason, I always enjoy when players call out their fans. It removes the invisible wall sometimes placed between fans and coaches, and it's nice to know they know the fans are there. Or aren't there, in Missouri's case. Senior guard Kim English voiced his displeasure on twitter after Missouri's recent win over Mercer: "Love the 5,769 people who were at the game to DEATH!! Thank YOU guys so much. 53-3 at home in our careers and empty seats?" 

It reminds of a time last season when I sat behind two Kansas football players on a bus who used plenty of four-letter words to voice their displeasure of the football beat writer who picked them to lose by 40 every week in the paper. If they didn't run about 6-foot-3, 290 pounds I would have introduced myself.

Kansas State: The loss of Jacob Pullen will really hurt Frank Martin’s club this year. Junior guard Rodney McGruder and senior forward Jamar Samuels will lead the Wildcats, who will have the talent advantage in Big 12 games exactly four times this season: each pair of games against the two following teams. 

Oklahoma: Lon Kruger is a great coach, but this Oklahoma roster is pretty bad. It will take a year or two before Kruger will have any success down in Norman. 

Texas Tech: Red Raider coach Billy Gillispie is in the same position as Kruger; a good coach who inherited a really bad roster. Both coaches will need time to recruit.

That's it for now.

In My Words

* If Oklahoma State and Stanford lose, we have to see an LSU/Alabama rematch for the BCS title. If LSU remained the only unbeaten team, who would have a better loss than to the No. 1 team by a field goal? No one.

*Kansas fans need to stop acting like they don't want to play Missouri anymore, because they do. They just don't want to admit it.

*Missouri fans need to stop acting like they'll ever finish better than 4th in the SEC. They won't, they just don't want to admit it.

*Michigan State and North Carolina are playing on a boat Friday night.

*Once again, Kentucky has the most NBA-ready talent in the country. Will that bring a championship to Lexington? Probably not.

*Is the NBA still locked out? Huh.

*If you ever get on twitter, please follow Jay Bilas. Just do it, you can thank me later.

*The matchup between Kansas' Thomas Robinson and Ohio State's Jared Sullinger on Dec. 10 in Lawrence might be the best 1-on-1 matchip we see all season. According to CBS, it's the No. 1 (Sullinger) and No. 6 (Robinson) players in the country.

*Kansas head coach Bill Self has more seasons at Kansas (8) than he does home losses (7).

*Back to football, maybe Alabama being left out in the cold will push us closer to a playoff. Boise State has as much pull as St. Cloud State Volleyball. A pissed off Alabama could get things changed, though. I think.

*Will the Packers go undefeated? Of course not, but their quarterback does make some good commercials.

Will they repeat, though? I say yes.

*Is this hit really worth $40,000? I say no way. But then again I think players with helmets should be allowed to hit each other. Crazy, I know.

*It's never too early to predict NCAA tournament brackets.

*Or bowl games.  How great does that Cincinnati/Clemson Orange Bowl matchup look? Game of the century, right there.

*Here's what it's like to be a Cleveland Browns fan. Factory of sadness, indeed.

The Money Myth

Why do stupid people in baseball get a free pass? Actually, I should say, why do stupid poor people in baseball get a free pass?

No matter the sport, there's always stupid people making stupid decisions for bad teams. The NBA has the Clippers and the Knicks. The NFL has the Browns and the Bengals. Major League Baseball has the Cubs, Pirates, and Royals. It's just the way it is.

In the salary cap sports, bad decision makers are called out and it makes perfect sense. In baseball, if you're in the top half of the payroll chart and make bad decisions annually, you're usually called out as well. (See: Cubs, Chicago. Mets, New York)

But when poor teams make as many -or more- bad decisions than most, you hear a different tune. You hear about how unfair it is that the Yankees spend half a billion dollars and they can't afford it and how a salary cap would fix their problems and they don't have enough money to win and if it wasn't for the Yankees or Red Sox they wouldn't have stubbed their toe earlier in the day.

So how much money are World Series winners spending? The last 10 seasons, the average World Series winner has been No. 10 on the payroll list. Barely in the top 1/3 of spending. The Yankees have been No. 1 in payroll every year in that span and have as many title as the Marlins (25th the year they won) and one less title than the Cardinals (11th both years they won).


It's easy to say money doesn't automatically equal wins and be met with a "yeah, but it sure does help a ton" argument. And that's true. Teams with more money can make terrible trades or free-agent signings and not be sunk when it's a face-plant. Poor teams have to be more careful. That hasn't stopped the Tampa Bay Rays (28th avg payroll last 10 yrs) from competing in the game's toughest division for the last 4 seasons.

It's safe to say that once you're in the playoffs, it's any one's trophy to win. Three Wild Card teams have won the World Series the last 10 years while 4 others have played in the World Series.

The last 10 seasons, 22 different teams have made the playoffs out of 30 possible teams, about 73% of the teams. In the NFL, 30/32 have made postseason play,  about 93%. But they also have four more playoff teams every year, 12 instead of just 8. So the numbers are much closer. And what about winning championships?

The last 10 years, baseball has had 8 different World Series winners and another 5 teams who made the Series. The NFL, who is supposedly the bastion of fair play and the everyone-has-an-equal-shot league, has had 7 different winners.

When the Raiders draft Robert Gallery over Larry Fitzgerald, or when the Cardinals take Levi Brown over Adrian Peterson, they're just dumb decisions. And when the Yankees give Carl Pavano $40 million it was just a terrible idea, and rightly so. But when the Pirates trade Aramis Ramirez for some guy named Matt Brubeck, it's suddenly the Yankees' fault.

Sometimes you don't need $200 million to win. Sometimes people just aren't smart.

Why the BCS Rankings Don't Matter

For now, at least.

Here's the remaining unbeaten BCS teams in the AP Poll:

1) LSU                                      
2) Alabama
3) Oklahoma
4) Wisconsin
5) Boise State              
6) Oklahoma State
7) Stanford      
8) Clemson
12) Kansas State

And the Coach's Poll:

1) Oklahoma
2) LSU
3) Alabama
4) Wisconsin
5) Stanford
6) Oklahoma State
7) Boise State
8) Clemson
16) Kansas State

-LSU and Alabama play on Nov. 5
-Oklahoma and Oklahoma State play on Dec. 3
-Both Oklahoma schools have yet to play Kansas State, leaving at least 3 of those schools with losses right there alone.

So unfortunately, these rankings won't mean a thing tonight.

Theo, Chicago, and the Sleeping Giant

While many Cardinals fans watched the 2011 Red Sox collapse with a smile and pointed laughter,*** 

 ***Why not? Red Sox fans have become Yankees fans. Arrogant, bandwagon junkies who somehow have legions of followers in every city across the country. Away games are filled with Sox hats and fans who can't wait to sing Sweet Caroline in the 7th inning. I once saw saw about 5,000 Red Sox fans at a Royals game last year. It was a Thursday in September. In Kansas City. Not exactly road trip material from Boston. They grabbed their cool "B" hat and drove from Overland Park or Independence and said 'we' a lot. No accents, and they couldn't spell Brookline if you gave them vowels and and pointed to their Boston hat. They aren't Red Sox fans, and I'm sure most real Sox fans don't want them, either.

another Red Sox win or Rays loss could have done wonders for the Cardinals. And every other NL central team for that matter. The historic collapse sealed manager Terry Francona's fate and if all the reports are true, GM Theo Epstein is on his way to the Cubs. Calling the hapless Cubs a sleeping giant is tough, but what other sports franchise has that big of a payroll, an iconic franchise in a major city, millions of fans, but fans that generally don't seem to care? Their fate is sealed every year by Memorial Day and they almost embrace it. 

Take this picture for example. The opposing team just went deep and I count 6 people there laughing or smiling. They just can't wait to throw the ball back while drinking crappy beer. Throw it back, that'll show 'em.


One of the many things the Cubs haven't been able to do is develop talent. One of the things Epstein has been great at has been developing talent. -Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Papelbon.

While the Cubs gave tens of millions to LaTroy Hawkins, Kosuke Fukudome, and Nomar Garciaparra, Epstein signed David Ortiz to a 1-year, $1.25 million contract after the Twins released him. He unloaded Garciaparra on the Cubs on way to winning the 04 World Series. He gave up the following players for Curt Schilling: Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, Jorge de la Rosa and Michael Goss. He claimed Kevin Millar before Millar's contract was sold to a Japanese team in 2003.

A lot of people like to discount his two world Series titles in Boston because of the payroll. If money is all you need, why haven't the Angels won a title since 2002? ($138 million payroll) or the Mets since '86 ($118 mil.) Cubs since forever ($125) Twins since '91 ($112) Dodgers since '88 ($104) etc.

The payroll won't be a huge drop off from Boston, and the difference in pressure won't even be close. Not to mention that if he wants to, he can bring over Terry Francona to manage for him. Say what you will about the advantages Epstein had in Boston or how Francona lost his team this season, if that duo can win two titles in the AL East, they can certainly win in the NL Central. And if breaking the curse in Boston was huge, winning in Chicago and Boston would be historic. If not, no big deal. Fans will shrug their shoulders and wait for next year.

Big 12 Safe For Now

If you needed any more proof that football and tv sets are the only things driving all this conference realignment talk/excitement/rumors/lies, take a quick gander at TCU. The Horned Frogs formally accepted an offer to join the Big 12 minus 3, bringing conference membership to 10 as of right now.

If conference shakeups happened 5 years ago, TCU wouldn't have been on any one's radar. But somewhere after that 5th or 6th top 25 finish since 2000 or that 2nd consecutive BCS bowl, or that 13-0 season and Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin a year ago, TCU became sexy. They knew it, too, agreeing to a $105 million expansion to their football stadium last year which currently only holds 44,000 people. Expected to be done in 2012.

                                                              

  

TCU has an enrollment of just over 9,000 students, by far the smallest in the Big 12. It's basketball program has been a joke forever, along with it's basketball facility, the Daniel-Meyer Coliseum. The 50-year old building has a capacity of just 7,166.  The only truly redeeming qualities of TCU are football and playing in the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.

Now with the top 25 football program and 4 million sets of eyeballs in tow, the fun begins. If the Big 12 wants to gain some credibility back, it should probably add two more to get to 12 to have a title game. Of course, until the SEC decides if it wants Mizzou or not, things are at a stalemate. Here's a few scenarios..

1) The Big 12 stays at 10, TCU steps in for Texas A&M and has the Aggies' old schedule.
2) Louisville, Cincinnati, BYU, and West Virginia are offered with some sort of hierarchy, i.e. Louisville gets first option to join, then WVU, etc. or something like that until we have 12 schools.

If Mizzou somehow does leave, you could still ask the above four schools but you'd obviously have to get commitments from 3/4 which would be tough. Without Mizzou, I see the Big 12 adding just one more to get back to 10 to stay above water for another year. Not a great spot, but certainly better than where the conference was a month ago. Baby steps.

Winners and Losers

Of course everyone saw the Lions sitting at 4-0 ready to play on Monday Night Football. Of course.

Winners

The NFC North: The Packers are 5-0 for the first time in 46 years or something. Aaron Rodgers is no worst than the 2nd best quarterback in the league, and it's obvious his constant winning since last December is irritating Brett Favre, which is a plus. The Lions have survived 3 games to start 4-0 and are preparing to play the Bears tonight on Monday Night Football. The rushing game is non-existent, this is all about the receiver they call Megatron. The Bears aren't terrible, either.

The SEC West: One of these years we're going to have a BCS title game without an SEC team, I can feel it. 2011 doesn't look to be one of those years though. LSU and Alabama are No. 1 and 2 in the latest AP polls and obviously, one of them will lose when they play this season. The winner of that Nov. 5 matchup will have a clear path to another title.
Here's LSU's remaining schedule after the Alabama game:
-Western Kentucky
-@ Ole Miss
-No. 10 Arkansas

and Alabama:
-@Mississippi State
-Georgia Southern
-@ No. 24 Auburn.

Kudos to both AD's for scheduling Western Kentucky and Georgia Southern late in the season, giving their teams a nice off week to stay sharp for the homestretch. That's why they win.

Indianapolis Colts: Stay with me here. The Colts have had the most consistent -and oftentimes best- quarterback play with Peyton Manning for the last decade. The one year he sits out due to injury just so happens to be the same year the best quarterback prospect of the last 15 years is available. The Colts are 0-5 with 3 straight road games coming up. There's a good chance their first win doesn't come until Nov. 13. And if that happens, there's a good chance they end up with the No. 1 pick in next year's draft. One of these teams will have the first pick:
-Colts (0-5)
-Dolphins (0-4)
-Vikings (1-4)
-Rams (0-4)
-Cardinals (1-4)

The Colts and Rams have looked the worst. The Rams won't draft Luck, so I could see them trading out of the first slot, leaving Indy two chances at nabbing Luck and letting him become Aaron Rodgers 2.0. That just wouldn't be fair.

Losers

The Border War: The Kansas defense might end up being the worst of all time. Last week against Oklahoma State, Mike Gundy pulled the starters in the 1st half. He could have put 100 on KU if he wanted but he let his walk-ons only tack on 14 in the second half, winning 70-28. The defense is giving up 49 points a game and is getting worse, if that's possible. And if you believe in rumors from anonymous sources, there's this:

"Informed sources tell Football Rumor Mill that, even though Kansas head coach Turner Gill has a significant buyout on his contract, he could well be unemployed at season’s end. It seems AD Sheahon Zenger is running out of patience with his predecessor’s last hire" 

Then there's Missouri. After trying desperately to get a Big 10 invite last year, they're trying again this time around for the SEC. The talks definitely seem much farther along than last summer, but the longer things drag out, the more you have to wonder if Mizzou will get left at the altar again. Leaking quotes that the SEC isn't your first choice can't help things at all.

"One Mizzou source has told the AP that the Big Ten remains the school’s top choice, but Jim Delany’s league "“has no interest"" and about the SEC, he said."" That’s what’s left,”" the person said referring to the SEC."

And while the Tigers try to join the SEC West (Alabama, LSU, Auburn etc.), they're having trouble in the Big 12. At 2-3, a bowl game is no longer a foregone conclusion.

The Eagles: The Dream Team is more of a nightmare at this point. Hopefully people are realizing Michael Vick is nothing more than a good quarterback who's never done anything of merit in the playoffs. From a sexy Superbowl pick to 1-3, I'm not sure what the problem is, but it couldn't have happened to a nicer group of fans.

Ron Zook: Can't get out of his own way

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Long Time No See

My old blog is no more, kind of. If you want to read any older posts you still can over there. If you want to know why I'm here now, leave a comment. (Page hits, people.)

Thanks to the steroid era, baseball's 500 Club has lost a lot of luster. Luckily, it's not the only 500 landmark in sports.

-There's 25 members of baseball's 500 club. 10 of those players played in the steroid era, and everyone in that group was either A) caught using steroids B) caught lying about steroids C) forgot English when asked about steroids, or D) suspected of using steroids at some point. Except this guy.

-Only 11 NFL quarterbacks have thrown for 500+ yards in a single game.
      -Dan Marino and Tom Brady make sense. Vince Ferragamo had me clicking on google, and what do you know, he has his own website. Not only that, but there's actually a Vince Ferragamo fan club. That's right. For only $30.00 you get an autographed photo, a Vince Ferragamo button, and an autographed letter thanking you for that $30.00. I'd pay Vince $30.00 just to see how many people are actually in his fan club.

-The Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates have combined for 2 seasons over .500 since 1993. The Red Sox have accomplished the feat 16 times in that span. The Yankees 19.

-2 pitchers, Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera have over 500 saves. Rivera now has 603, two more than Hoffman. No active player is within 170 of the 500 mark.

-The Indy 500 and Daytona 500 are the only races Americans remotely care about.

That's all for now.