Big 12 Predictions

I wrote this column today for the paper. I figured I would elaborate more on here where I'm safe from word counts, editors, and anyone who wouldn't let me reference Anthony Davis' unibrow.

The Big 12 is down this year, no doubt about it. Kansas doesn't look like Kansas, Baylor is still looking for a point guard and nearly everyone else would be happy with just an NCAA tournament appearance. Here's how the teams will finish:

Baylor: The Bears are loaded in the frontcourt, led by 6-foot-11 sophomore forward Perry Jones III, who shocked experts when he bypassed the NBA draft and returned for a second season in Waco. Senior forward Quincy Acy averaged 12.4 points per game last year and five-star recruit Quincy Miller joins both players down low. Good point guard play could take the Bears to New Orleans and the Final Four, and that looks to be coming from two newcomers. Highly-touted JUCO transfer Pierre Jackson will get his shot, but how many JUCO transfers make immediate impacts at the high division I level? I can't think of any. Four-star recruit Deuce Bello should also be good, and one of those guys will have to be consistently productive if the Bears want to upend Kansas. Whatever happens, Baylor will have the most athletic team on the court every single game this year. Some of the most athletic guys I've seen in a long time.

Kansas: The seven-year run of Big 12 regular season titles has to end eventually. With a thin frontcourt and only one seasoned veteran guard in the backcourt with senior Tyshawn Taylor, the Jayhawks will struggle with scoring at times. There’s still talent there, though. And last time I checked, Bill Self is still the coach and they still play in Allen Fieldhouse. Another conference title wouldn’t shock many people. The thing with Kansas is, if you switched their roster and coach with Baylor's, the Bears would be overwhelming favorites to win the conference this year. Say what you will about Bill Self's March upsets, the guy knows how to win the Big 12. And he doesn't lose in Lawrence, either. He's coached 8 seasons at Kansas and has 7 home losses. A lot of that home-court advantage begins before the game even starts. ESPN's Jason King calls it the best pregame ritual in college hoops, and I tend to agree.

Texas A&M: The Aggies return six of their eight leading scorers and junior forward Khris Middleton will vie for All-Big 12 honors this season. Returning senior point guard Dash Harris will also be huge for the Aggies, who look to make their 7th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance. 

Texas: They’re young, no doubt. But junior guard J’Covan Brown is the real deal and with the departure of Dogus Balbay, who seemed to always have the ball in his hands, Brown will get plenty of chances to score. High school All-American Myck Kabongo joins the Longhorns, creating quite the duo with Brown on the perimeter. Unfortunately, Texas fans won't see how this team comes together this season because Texas fans don't know they have a basketball team. Home games in Austin look like an early June day game between the Marlins and Nationals.

Oklahoma State: Upperclassmen guards Keiton Paige and Jean-Paul Olukemi both average double figures in career scoring. High school All-American LeBryan Nash is a scoring machine on the wing and will be great when he adjusts to the college level. But back to Keiton Page. I'm still trying to figure out how he plays basketball in the Big 12. He's 5-foot-6 on a good day.

Iowa State: The Cyclones are the toughest team to predict here because head coach Fred Hoiberg welcomes in a slew of transfers. Chemistry will be an issue but talent is there, including former Michigan State guard Chris Allen and former Minnesota forward Royce White. Look for the Cyclones to be gelling by January. Hoiberg grew up in Ames and played four seasons at Iowa State in the early 1990's. He was nicknamed "The Mayor" after receiving a handful of votes in the 1993 Ames mayoral election, and it's the best nickname in college sports.

Missouri: If head coach Mike Anderson hadn’t left and senior forward Laurence Bowers hadn’t suffered an injury that ended the season for him, the Tigers would be a top-three contender this year. But that’s not the case. With a new system and without its best interior defender, Missouri will struggle to guard anyone down low this season. 

For some reason, I always enjoy when players call out their fans. It removes the invisible wall sometimes placed between fans and coaches, and it's nice to know they know the fans are there. Or aren't there, in Missouri's case. Senior guard Kim English voiced his displeasure on twitter after Missouri's recent win over Mercer: "Love the 5,769 people who were at the game to DEATH!! Thank YOU guys so much. 53-3 at home in our careers and empty seats?" 

It reminds of a time last season when I sat behind two Kansas football players on a bus who used plenty of four-letter words to voice their displeasure of the football beat writer who picked them to lose by 40 every week in the paper. If they didn't run about 6-foot-3, 290 pounds I would have introduced myself.

Kansas State: The loss of Jacob Pullen will really hurt Frank Martin’s club this year. Junior guard Rodney McGruder and senior forward Jamar Samuels will lead the Wildcats, who will have the talent advantage in Big 12 games exactly four times this season: each pair of games against the two following teams. 

Oklahoma: Lon Kruger is a great coach, but this Oklahoma roster is pretty bad. It will take a year or two before Kruger will have any success down in Norman. 

Texas Tech: Red Raider coach Billy Gillispie is in the same position as Kruger; a good coach who inherited a really bad roster. Both coaches will need time to recruit.

That's it for now.

In My Words

* If Oklahoma State and Stanford lose, we have to see an LSU/Alabama rematch for the BCS title. If LSU remained the only unbeaten team, who would have a better loss than to the No. 1 team by a field goal? No one.

*Kansas fans need to stop acting like they don't want to play Missouri anymore, because they do. They just don't want to admit it.

*Missouri fans need to stop acting like they'll ever finish better than 4th in the SEC. They won't, they just don't want to admit it.

*Michigan State and North Carolina are playing on a boat Friday night.

*Once again, Kentucky has the most NBA-ready talent in the country. Will that bring a championship to Lexington? Probably not.

*Is the NBA still locked out? Huh.

*If you ever get on twitter, please follow Jay Bilas. Just do it, you can thank me later.

*The matchup between Kansas' Thomas Robinson and Ohio State's Jared Sullinger on Dec. 10 in Lawrence might be the best 1-on-1 matchip we see all season. According to CBS, it's the No. 1 (Sullinger) and No. 6 (Robinson) players in the country.

*Kansas head coach Bill Self has more seasons at Kansas (8) than he does home losses (7).

*Back to football, maybe Alabama being left out in the cold will push us closer to a playoff. Boise State has as much pull as St. Cloud State Volleyball. A pissed off Alabama could get things changed, though. I think.

*Will the Packers go undefeated? Of course not, but their quarterback does make some good commercials.

Will they repeat, though? I say yes.

*Is this hit really worth $40,000? I say no way. But then again I think players with helmets should be allowed to hit each other. Crazy, I know.

*It's never too early to predict NCAA tournament brackets.

*Or bowl games.  How great does that Cincinnati/Clemson Orange Bowl matchup look? Game of the century, right there.

*Here's what it's like to be a Cleveland Browns fan. Factory of sadness, indeed.

Theo, Chicago, and the Sleeping Giant

While many Cardinals fans watched the 2011 Red Sox collapse with a smile and pointed laughter,*** 

 ***Why not? Red Sox fans have become Yankees fans. Arrogant, bandwagon junkies who somehow have legions of followers in every city across the country. Away games are filled with Sox hats and fans who can't wait to sing Sweet Caroline in the 7th inning. I once saw saw about 5,000 Red Sox fans at a Royals game last year. It was a Thursday in September. In Kansas City. Not exactly road trip material from Boston. They grabbed their cool "B" hat and drove from Overland Park or Independence and said 'we' a lot. No accents, and they couldn't spell Brookline if you gave them vowels and and pointed to their Boston hat. They aren't Red Sox fans, and I'm sure most real Sox fans don't want them, either.

another Red Sox win or Rays loss could have done wonders for the Cardinals. And every other NL central team for that matter. The historic collapse sealed manager Terry Francona's fate and if all the reports are true, GM Theo Epstein is on his way to the Cubs. Calling the hapless Cubs a sleeping giant is tough, but what other sports franchise has that big of a payroll, an iconic franchise in a major city, millions of fans, but fans that generally don't seem to care? Their fate is sealed every year by Memorial Day and they almost embrace it. 

Take this picture for example. The opposing team just went deep and I count 6 people there laughing or smiling. They just can't wait to throw the ball back while drinking crappy beer. Throw it back, that'll show 'em.


One of the many things the Cubs haven't been able to do is develop talent. One of the things Epstein has been great at has been developing talent. -Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, Jonathan Papelbon.

While the Cubs gave tens of millions to LaTroy Hawkins, Kosuke Fukudome, and Nomar Garciaparra, Epstein signed David Ortiz to a 1-year, $1.25 million contract after the Twins released him. He unloaded Garciaparra on the Cubs on way to winning the 04 World Series. He gave up the following players for Curt Schilling: Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon, Jorge de la Rosa and Michael Goss. He claimed Kevin Millar before Millar's contract was sold to a Japanese team in 2003.

A lot of people like to discount his two world Series titles in Boston because of the payroll. If money is all you need, why haven't the Angels won a title since 2002? ($138 million payroll) or the Mets since '86 ($118 mil.) Cubs since forever ($125) Twins since '91 ($112) Dodgers since '88 ($104) etc.

The payroll won't be a huge drop off from Boston, and the difference in pressure won't even be close. Not to mention that if he wants to, he can bring over Terry Francona to manage for him. Say what you will about the advantages Epstein had in Boston or how Francona lost his team this season, if that duo can win two titles in the AL East, they can certainly win in the NL Central. And if breaking the curse in Boston was huge, winning in Chicago and Boston would be historic. If not, no big deal. Fans will shrug their shoulders and wait for next year.