Calipari

Sometime Sunday during Kentucky's press conference leading up to Monday's National Championship game, esteemed Boston Globe columnist Bob Ryan asked John Calipari about possibly winning his first national title. 

Calipari dodged it better than Floyd Mayweather when asked to fight a real opponent.

I'm not sure how many times a person can say “It's not about me” until it actually is about them, but John Calipari is probably in that neighborhood, if not parked in that imaginary driveway.

A top 10 -if not top five- coach just one game away from his first national title, of course people wanted to know how it would feel. But Cal wanted nothing to do with it.

“It's about these players,” he'd say. “It's a big deal to my friends and family because they want it so bad."

And maybe he truly believes that. He's said publicly that Final Fours and National Titles aren't a deal breaker for him or his legacy. He even called the 2010 NBA Draft “The best day in school history” when five Kentucky players were selected in the first round.

He told a warm and fuzzy story Sunday about how sending 50 players to the NBA would trump any personal accomplishments.

But he can do both. He just did. 

And what did he have to say?

"It's over now.  I can get about my business of coaching young people and not have the drama of all the other stuff."

The NCAA should apologize for interfering Calipari's boys-into-men routine with its pesky little tournament.

My theory on why Cal won't acknowledge his personal accolades might be more off than Kansas' shooting against his Kentucky defense Monday night, but I don't think so.

Calipari knows most people don't like him, and he doesn't like that.

So he tells us its all about the kids. And his family and friends and the fans and his dog and everyone else but him, because that's what nice people are supposed do.

Except when it backfires, and everyone knows you're full of it.

Towards the end of Calipari's stint at Memphis he was spitting out guys to the NBA on a regular basis. He had more top classes on the way but decided to leave for Kentucky. Of course he did, because when you're a head coach at a Conference USA school and Kentucky gives you a contract, you sign it. But the NBA players were coming to Memphis and his apparent Utopian dream of watching high school players turn into Lottery picks was a reality.

Derrick Rose, anyone?

Maybe Calipari left Memphis because he thought the NCAA was sniffing around. Maybe he wanted to coach at one of the best schools in the country. Maybe both, but definitely one.

But apparently admitting he actually did something for himself wouldn't help his public persona. Unfortunately for Calipari, he tries so hard to be liked that it backfires in every city but the one he coaches in at that time. So he tries harder and it only gets worse.

John Calipari went to Kentucky to get the best high school players each year and guide them to the NBA, there's no denying that. But he also went to Kentucky for nights like Monday when he could sit atop college basketball with the sport's all-time winningest program. The sooner he admits that, the better. It can't hurt.

He won't, though, because it's not about Calipari. Don't believe him? He'll tell you again. And again. And again, four times to be exact in his post-game press conference.

“You're not answering my question John. How would it feel?” Ryan asked.

“I don't know what else to say.” Of course not, because it's all about the kids.

Yeah, right.

This is How it Should Be

You won't find a pair of college basketball fanbases more rabid than Kentucky and Kansas.

Both will be in New Orleans for the Final Four this weekend, a sign that there is in fact a basketball god somewhere. And just for good measure, the little guys weren't invited this time. Sure, VCU, Butler, and George Mason were nice stories. But Cinderellas are like a good movie with a terrible ending, and the Final Four is no place for a terrible ending.


-With all due respect to Detroit and Indianapolis, New Orleans is not Detroit or Indianapolis.

                                                            Detroit

                                                          Not Detroit

-We have 4 BCS-conference schools and 2 Blue Bloods for just the second time since 1997. Louisville would be atop the next tier of all-time programs, just outside Blueblood status and Ohio State has been to the Final Four three times now since 1998.

-Rick Pitino and his white suits will be in the Hall of Fame really, really soon.

Bill Self and John Calipari will probably join him at some point, and Thad Matta has become a top 15 coach at Ohio State.

-Kentucky and Louisville is one of the best rivalries in the sport, possibly third after Duke-Carolina and Kansas-Missouri.

-Rick Pitino and John Calipari don't like each other, which is always fun. Last October, Calipari said Kentucky is "the only real program in the state," conveniently forgetting the school with then 8 Final Fours and 2 national championships. Pitino responded with this:
"Four things I've learned in my 59 years about people: I ignore the jealous, I ignore the malicious, I ignore the ignorant and I ignore the paranoid."

-As noted, Kansas and Kentucky are the two best fanbases in the country. Kansas fans took up about 85% of the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis last Sunday against North Carolina. Mizzou, Iowa State, and Kansas State were the only road games I remember this season where KU fans weren't the majority. Kentucky fans apparently consumed even more of the Georgia Dome last weekend as well, and both fanbases will be ever-present on Bourbon Street this week.

-There's Bill Self, who's looking to become just the 5th active coach with multiple national titles. This KU team, whose bench consists of a walk-on, a former walk-on, and a transfer from Loyola-Marymount had no business being this good this year. It speaks to a few things: 1) Self is that good. He's won a ridiculous 8 consecutive Big 12 Regular Season titles and has won 83% of his games at KU. Self has coached more seasons at KU than he has losses in Allen Fieldhouse.  2) The Law of Averages: When you're a top seed nearly every year (1 seed 4 of the last 6 years, lower than a 3 seed just once in Self's tenure) the Final Four appearances will start to add up. Self's pace is just 1 year behind Coach K with his 2nd Final Four and 1st National Title. K achieved those numbers in his 8th year at Duke, Self is in his 9th at KU. That's not to say Self is the next Krzyzewski, but the pace he's on is blistering.

-Ohio State's Thad Matta is in his 8th season in Columbus and while he's not normally mentioned with the elite coaches in the country, he could change that perception with a couple of wins in New Orleans. He coached the Buckeyes in the Title game in 2007, losing to Florida, and is slightly favored to knock off Kansas on Saturday, which I think he will.


Cinderella is fun on those drunken Thursday and Friday afternoons of the first round. But now she's where she should be, watching the final games at home like everyone else.
 

Tournament Perceptions

Between Pat Forde picking 15-seeded Detroit to knock off Kansas and Mizzou and Duke both losing to 15-seeds for just the 5th and 6th times ever in the tournament, it got me thinking: Do people's perceptions of teams in the tournament really hold any water? Kansas is usually the first team mentioned when March Upsets are brought up and rightly so. Bill Self's struggles with mid-majors are somewhat perplexing. He's won 8 straight Big 12 titles, been to 4 elite 8's and has a National Title. But 4 of his 7 Tournament losses have come against schools who's biggest basketball accomplishment is beating Kansas in the NCAA Tournament. But Self isn't much different than any other coach.

The NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Here's how Kansas has done since then:

They've missed the tournament just one time, in 1989. They currently have the longest NCAA Tournament appearance streak with 23 straight years in the dance.

Final Fours: 7
Titles: 2
Outperformed for seed (4 seed advancing past Sweet 16, 2 seed advancing to Final Four, etc): 7 times, or 26% of the time.

Underperformed for seed:(1 seed losing before Final Four, 2 losing before Elite 8, etc): 11 times,  42%.

Played to Seed: 8 times. 30%.

Top 4 seed: 22 times

Bad 1st round losses: 2

Mizzou's loss to Norfolk State isn't on here because Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky are still playing. It was the second top-two seed for Mizzou and first two-seed in the modern era.

Outperformed for seed: 4 times, 23%.

Underperformed for seed: 3 times, 17%.

Played to seed: 10 times, 58%

Top 4 seed: 5 times.

Bad 1st round losses: 2

Missed Tournament 10 times

While Kansas has under-performed at a higher rate, they were also a top 4 seed 17 more times. It's obviously given them many more opportunities to under-perform rather than over-perform. Kansas has, however, over-played their seed at a higher clip as well. And you have to ask yourself, would you rather be in a position to be upset by a multi-directional school with a budget the size of a 7th grade girls team, or not be in the tournament at all? Obviously the bad losses stick out and make for good punchlines, but at least you gave yourself a chance to play for a championship. The Tigers have only had the chance to be upset 8 times since 1985, not counting this year's loss. When it comes to the Tournament, only Duke can match KU's 28 appearances in the modern era.

The Blue Devils have the most impressive stretch of any of the teams listed, with Final Fours in every year from 1988-1992 and capping it off with back-to-back titles in 91 and 92.

Final Fours: 11

Titles: 4

Outperformed for seed: 6 times, 23%.

Underperformed for seed: 13 times, 50%.

Played to seed: 7 times, 27%

Top 4 seed: 23 times

Bad 1st round losses: 0

Kentucky is atop the all-time wins list and has been fairly consistent in the modern era, but nowhere near Kansas or Duke.

Outperformed for seed: 4 times, 17%.

Underperformed for seed: 8 times, 34%.

Played to seed: 11 times, 47%.

Top 4 seed: 16 times.

Bad 1st round losses: 0

Missed Tournament 4 times

North Carolina was favored to play for the National Championship this season before point guard Kendall Marshall's fractured hand hampered those dreams.

Outperformed for seed: 2 times, 8%.

Underperformed for seed: 8 times, 33%.

Played to seed: 14 times, 58%

Top 4 seed: 21 times.

Bad 1st round losses: 1

If you like going to the Tournament as a high seed every year since the first Bush administration, go with Kansas or Duke. If you want to play to your seed and limit many crazy surprises, pick Carolina. And if you're Mizzou, you might want to read this before talking about other schools' apparent Tournament Woes.

 

What I Think I Think

* I still think Tom Brady will go down as the greatest quarterback of all-time. But he'll need to win another Super Bowl to cement that status. There's a reason Dan Marino set and holds a ton of passing records but is never really in the G.O.A.T discussion: No rings.

* I think we've had more Bracketology this year than any other.  It's a small part of one of the many reasons college basketball gets it and college football doesn't. The first week of college football is one of the best sports weekends of the year. It's awesome until about Thanksgiving. Then fans have to ask ridiculous, time wasting questions like 'why does a computer determine our champion'? Anyway, college basketball gets it. Is a 68-team, single elimination tournament the best way to determine a champion? Of course not, but it's the most exciting and will never be short of $$$.

*I think if you put the ugliest college basketball players in a group, Anthony Davis would be the most talented, by far.

* I think if you're on Twitter, you have to follow Jay Bilas.

* I think Duke is the most vulnerable potential 1-seed. Followed by Kansas and Missouri.

*I think if anyone but Bill Self or Frank Haith wins the National Coach of the Year Award, something went wrong.

*I think the Texas Rangers edge closer to the Buffalo Bills and lose another World Series this season. This time to the Phillies or Marlins.

*I think Seattle will have an NBA team in 5 years. Probably the Hornets or Bobcats.

*It would never happen, but I think every Big 4 sports league would be better with 2-3 less teams.
NFL: Panthers, Buccaneers, Jaguars
NBA: Bobcats, Hornets, Timberwolves, Raptors
MLB: Nationals, Blue Jays
NHL: Any team in Florida, Georgia, either Carolina, Arizona, Southern California and Tennessee.

*I think Hockey Announcers are the best announcers.

*I think college basketball conference tournaments are dumb, and nothing more than an extra money grab. Ever heard of an NFC East tournament before the playoffs? How about an American League Central tournament in September?

*I think people need to stop with the Jeremy Lin Puns.

College Basketball Math

College basketball polls in December are as meaningful as September baseball in Pittsburgh. On a good day.

But when the AP poll can tell you exactly which team will cut down the nets in April, it might as well be Grays Sports Almanac from Back to the Future II. Here's the latest AP poll, released every Monday:

1) Syracuse
2) Ohio State
3) Kentucky
4) Louisville
5) North Carolina
6) Baylor
7) Duke
8) Xavier
9) Connecticut
10) Missouri
11) Marquette

I only have the top 11 because excluding Syracuse in 2003, (Carmelo Anthony ain't walking through that door) every championship team of the last 15 years has been in the top 11 in the AP poll in week 6. The last 15 champions have also been from BCS conferences, so say goodbye to Xavier.

Syracuse
Ohio State
Kentucky
Louisville
North Carolina
Baylor
Duke
Connecticut
Missouri
Marquette

Fourteen of the last 15 winners had also been to a Final Four within the last seven seasons. That takes care of Marquette, Missouri, Baylor and Syracuse. We're left with:

Ohio State
Kentucky
Louisville
North Carolina
Duke
Connecticut

National title winners also have great guard play. Some are lottery picks and solid NBA players like Richard Hamilton and Shane Battier. Some never sniff NBA playing time like Duke's Jon Scheyer and Florida's Lee Humphrey. But they were all great in college. Humphrey never really missed from beyond the arc.

Ohio State has Aaron Craft. I got a chance to watch him play last Saturday, and he's the best guard I've seen this year. He's smooth on offense and a pest on defense. He's grabbed at least 3 steals in 6 games this season and is averaging 9 points and 5 assists.

Kentucky has 3 perimeter guys -Michael Gilchrist, Marquis Teague and Doron Lamb- who will be in the NBA sooner rather than later. Any one of the trio can take over a game, but Lamb is the only experienced Wildcat. And he's only a sophomore. Kentucky has enough talent to win it all but when they don't, a lack of experience will be the reason.

Many experts, including the guys at Rivals.com, have North Carolina guard Kendall Marshall as one of the nation's best point guards.

Duke has Austin Rivers, who's cockiness might only be matched by his ability to make defenders look really, really bad.

Shabazz Napier of Connecticut has stepped out of former 1st team All-American Kemba Walker's shadow and is quietly getting 15 points and 6 assists a game.

Louisville's Peyton Siva is good, but not quite on the same level as the players above.

That leaves us with:

Ohio State
Kentucky
North Carolina
Duke
Connecticut

Repeating as champs -even with the same roster- is a tall order. Losing a unanimous 1st team All-American will make Uconn's hopes futile.

Ohio State
Kentucky
North Carolina
Duke

For John Calipari and Kentucky, winning a title with as many freshman as he plays every year will be tough as well. And Calipari is quietly gaining a reputation as a terrible late-game coach. In the 2008 championship game against Kansas, he was up 3 with 10 seconds left. He said he wanted to foul to avoid Kansas attempting a 3. Didn't happen.

On Saturday against Indiana, Calipari and No. 1 Kentucky were up 2 with 5 seconds left. He said he wanted to foul to avoid Indiana attempting a 3 (not sure why you foul up 2, but he's the pro, not me). Didn't happen.

I'm not betting on Calipari and a group of freshman to win it all, ever. Moving on..

Ohio State
North Carolina
Duke

North Carolina and Duke have a 4:1 edge in titles over the entire Big 10 the last 15 years. Advantage: ACC

North Carolina
Duke

The average ranking of the eventual champion in the AP's week 6 poll the last 15 years? 5th.

The 5th ranked team this week?

Big 12 Predictions

I wrote this column today for the paper. I figured I would elaborate more on here where I'm safe from word counts, editors, and anyone who wouldn't let me reference Anthony Davis' unibrow.

The Big 12 is down this year, no doubt about it. Kansas doesn't look like Kansas, Baylor is still looking for a point guard and nearly everyone else would be happy with just an NCAA tournament appearance. Here's how the teams will finish:

Baylor: The Bears are loaded in the frontcourt, led by 6-foot-11 sophomore forward Perry Jones III, who shocked experts when he bypassed the NBA draft and returned for a second season in Waco. Senior forward Quincy Acy averaged 12.4 points per game last year and five-star recruit Quincy Miller joins both players down low. Good point guard play could take the Bears to New Orleans and the Final Four, and that looks to be coming from two newcomers. Highly-touted JUCO transfer Pierre Jackson will get his shot, but how many JUCO transfers make immediate impacts at the high division I level? I can't think of any. Four-star recruit Deuce Bello should also be good, and one of those guys will have to be consistently productive if the Bears want to upend Kansas. Whatever happens, Baylor will have the most athletic team on the court every single game this year. Some of the most athletic guys I've seen in a long time.

Kansas: The seven-year run of Big 12 regular season titles has to end eventually. With a thin frontcourt and only one seasoned veteran guard in the backcourt with senior Tyshawn Taylor, the Jayhawks will struggle with scoring at times. There’s still talent there, though. And last time I checked, Bill Self is still the coach and they still play in Allen Fieldhouse. Another conference title wouldn’t shock many people. The thing with Kansas is, if you switched their roster and coach with Baylor's, the Bears would be overwhelming favorites to win the conference this year. Say what you will about Bill Self's March upsets, the guy knows how to win the Big 12. And he doesn't lose in Lawrence, either. He's coached 8 seasons at Kansas and has 7 home losses. A lot of that home-court advantage begins before the game even starts. ESPN's Jason King calls it the best pregame ritual in college hoops, and I tend to agree.

Texas A&M: The Aggies return six of their eight leading scorers and junior forward Khris Middleton will vie for All-Big 12 honors this season. Returning senior point guard Dash Harris will also be huge for the Aggies, who look to make their 7th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance. 

Texas: They’re young, no doubt. But junior guard J’Covan Brown is the real deal and with the departure of Dogus Balbay, who seemed to always have the ball in his hands, Brown will get plenty of chances to score. High school All-American Myck Kabongo joins the Longhorns, creating quite the duo with Brown on the perimeter. Unfortunately, Texas fans won't see how this team comes together this season because Texas fans don't know they have a basketball team. Home games in Austin look like an early June day game between the Marlins and Nationals.

Oklahoma State: Upperclassmen guards Keiton Paige and Jean-Paul Olukemi both average double figures in career scoring. High school All-American LeBryan Nash is a scoring machine on the wing and will be great when he adjusts to the college level. But back to Keiton Page. I'm still trying to figure out how he plays basketball in the Big 12. He's 5-foot-6 on a good day.

Iowa State: The Cyclones are the toughest team to predict here because head coach Fred Hoiberg welcomes in a slew of transfers. Chemistry will be an issue but talent is there, including former Michigan State guard Chris Allen and former Minnesota forward Royce White. Look for the Cyclones to be gelling by January. Hoiberg grew up in Ames and played four seasons at Iowa State in the early 1990's. He was nicknamed "The Mayor" after receiving a handful of votes in the 1993 Ames mayoral election, and it's the best nickname in college sports.

Missouri: If head coach Mike Anderson hadn’t left and senior forward Laurence Bowers hadn’t suffered an injury that ended the season for him, the Tigers would be a top-three contender this year. But that’s not the case. With a new system and without its best interior defender, Missouri will struggle to guard anyone down low this season. 

For some reason, I always enjoy when players call out their fans. It removes the invisible wall sometimes placed between fans and coaches, and it's nice to know they know the fans are there. Or aren't there, in Missouri's case. Senior guard Kim English voiced his displeasure on twitter after Missouri's recent win over Mercer: "Love the 5,769 people who were at the game to DEATH!! Thank YOU guys so much. 53-3 at home in our careers and empty seats?" 

It reminds of a time last season when I sat behind two Kansas football players on a bus who used plenty of four-letter words to voice their displeasure of the football beat writer who picked them to lose by 40 every week in the paper. If they didn't run about 6-foot-3, 290 pounds I would have introduced myself.

Kansas State: The loss of Jacob Pullen will really hurt Frank Martin’s club this year. Junior guard Rodney McGruder and senior forward Jamar Samuels will lead the Wildcats, who will have the talent advantage in Big 12 games exactly four times this season: each pair of games against the two following teams. 

Oklahoma: Lon Kruger is a great coach, but this Oklahoma roster is pretty bad. It will take a year or two before Kruger will have any success down in Norman. 

Texas Tech: Red Raider coach Billy Gillispie is in the same position as Kruger; a good coach who inherited a really bad roster. Both coaches will need time to recruit.

That's it for now.

In My Words

* If Oklahoma State and Stanford lose, we have to see an LSU/Alabama rematch for the BCS title. If LSU remained the only unbeaten team, who would have a better loss than to the No. 1 team by a field goal? No one.

*Kansas fans need to stop acting like they don't want to play Missouri anymore, because they do. They just don't want to admit it.

*Missouri fans need to stop acting like they'll ever finish better than 4th in the SEC. They won't, they just don't want to admit it.

*Michigan State and North Carolina are playing on a boat Friday night.

*Once again, Kentucky has the most NBA-ready talent in the country. Will that bring a championship to Lexington? Probably not.

*Is the NBA still locked out? Huh.

*If you ever get on twitter, please follow Jay Bilas. Just do it, you can thank me later.

*The matchup between Kansas' Thomas Robinson and Ohio State's Jared Sullinger on Dec. 10 in Lawrence might be the best 1-on-1 matchip we see all season. According to CBS, it's the No. 1 (Sullinger) and No. 6 (Robinson) players in the country.

*Kansas head coach Bill Self has more seasons at Kansas (8) than he does home losses (7).

*Back to football, maybe Alabama being left out in the cold will push us closer to a playoff. Boise State has as much pull as St. Cloud State Volleyball. A pissed off Alabama could get things changed, though. I think.

*Will the Packers go undefeated? Of course not, but their quarterback does make some good commercials.

Will they repeat, though? I say yes.

*Is this hit really worth $40,000? I say no way. But then again I think players with helmets should be allowed to hit each other. Crazy, I know.

*It's never too early to predict NCAA tournament brackets.

*Or bowl games.  How great does that Cincinnati/Clemson Orange Bowl matchup look? Game of the century, right there.

*Here's what it's like to be a Cleveland Browns fan. Factory of sadness, indeed.