What I Think I Think

* I still think Tom Brady will go down as the greatest quarterback of all-time. But he'll need to win another Super Bowl to cement that status. There's a reason Dan Marino set and holds a ton of passing records but is never really in the G.O.A.T discussion: No rings.

* I think we've had more Bracketology this year than any other.  It's a small part of one of the many reasons college basketball gets it and college football doesn't. The first week of college football is one of the best sports weekends of the year. It's awesome until about Thanksgiving. Then fans have to ask ridiculous, time wasting questions like 'why does a computer determine our champion'? Anyway, college basketball gets it. Is a 68-team, single elimination tournament the best way to determine a champion? Of course not, but it's the most exciting and will never be short of $$$.

*I think if you put the ugliest college basketball players in a group, Anthony Davis would be the most talented, by far.

* I think if you're on Twitter, you have to follow Jay Bilas.

* I think Duke is the most vulnerable potential 1-seed. Followed by Kansas and Missouri.

*I think if anyone but Bill Self or Frank Haith wins the National Coach of the Year Award, something went wrong.

*I think the Texas Rangers edge closer to the Buffalo Bills and lose another World Series this season. This time to the Phillies or Marlins.

*I think Seattle will have an NBA team in 5 years. Probably the Hornets or Bobcats.

*It would never happen, but I think every Big 4 sports league would be better with 2-3 less teams.
NFL: Panthers, Buccaneers, Jaguars
NBA: Bobcats, Hornets, Timberwolves, Raptors
MLB: Nationals, Blue Jays
NHL: Any team in Florida, Georgia, either Carolina, Arizona, Southern California and Tennessee.

*I think Hockey Announcers are the best announcers.

*I think college basketball conference tournaments are dumb, and nothing more than an extra money grab. Ever heard of an NFC East tournament before the playoffs? How about an American League Central tournament in September?

*I think people need to stop with the Jeremy Lin Puns.

Brady is the Best

I'll start this by saying I've never been a Tom Brady fan. His dating supermodels and lack of scandals is rather annoying, and this post probably means he comes out next week and throws 3 interceptions and loses.



Like any other great athlete, Tom Brady's legacy will only get better with time. It's not a coincidence that nearly without exception, a top 10 Greatest of All-Time list features about 8 guys who haven't played in 15 years. And if the guy has been retired for 40 years and the only things you've heard about him are romantic story-telling about just how great he was, even better. Or worse. It's the Lynn Swann and Joe Namath rule.

So it makes sense that when lists of the Greatest quarterbacks of All-Time are hashed out, Joe Montana and John Elway are usually at the top. They played 15-25 years ago and we get to hear how great they were every year around this time. And they are obviously two of the best of all time. But this guy is better.

This should probably wait until after the Super Bowl to see if Brady grabs another ring, but it doesn't really matter. How many statistical categories will Brady have to hold over Elway and Montana before him being considered the best of All-Time isn't a crazy thought? He already has more Super Bowl wins than Elway and a win next Sunday will tie him with Montana at 4, in fewer seasons than both.

How about winning percentage?
Brady: 77.9
Montana: 71.3
Elway: 64.0

Brady also has 7 more wins than Montana in 5 less starts. He is 24 wins behind Elway, but he's started 72 less games, exactly 4.5 seasons I have a weird feeling Brady can average 6 wins for the next 4.5 years (or 12.5 wins in 2 years) to pass Elway.

Completion percentage:
Brady: 63.8
Montana: 63.2
Elway: 56.9

Touchdowns:
Brady: 300 and counting
Elway: 300
Montana: 273

Passing Yards:
Elway: 51,475---222.8 per game
Montana: 40,551---247.2 per game
Brady: 39,979---251.4 per game

Brady will pass Montana early next season sometime. He needs just over 11,000 yards to pass Elway, or 2,874 for the next 4 seasons. For reference, and excluding the 2008 season he sat out with an injury, Brady's thrown over 3,500 yards every season since 2002. He threw for over 5,000 yards this season and around 4,000 the 2 years prior.

And for Super Bowls, Montana's 4-0 mark is something special and a Brady loss next week won't look great going up against that record. But Brady is only the 2nd quarterback to start 5 Super Bowls (tied with Elway, who was just 2-3 in the game).

The argument for Elway is that he dragged 3 teams to the Super Bowl all by himself. And he did, but he lost. Brady had probably the greatest offensive season ever in 2007 and had just one loss, but it just happened to be the last game of the season, meaning it's nothing but a footnote on his resume. It's the same reason Dan Marino is usually left out of the G.O.A.T discussions because he never won a Super Bowl.

Elway finally broke through and won a pair of Super Bowls before retiring. He had another pair of great seasons on great teams that featured a Pro Bowl running back in Terrell Davis and Hall of Fame pass catcher Shannon Sharpe. And Montana had the luxury of throwing balls to a game named Jerry Rice.

Brady did have Randy Moss in 2007 but he didn't even win one of his 3 Super Bowls that year.

-On his 2001 Super Bowl winner, Brady's top 2 receivers were Troy Brown and David Patten.
-2003 featured Brown and David Givens.
-2004 was David Patten and Daniel Graham.
-And this season his best targets are Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski. Hardly Jerry Rice, Dwight Clark and Shannon Sharpe.

Quick, find Rob Gronkowski:

Here are some more Brady postseason records:
-Most consecutive wins (10)
-Most completions in one Super Bowl (32)
-Only quarterback to start and win 3 Super Bowls before his 28th birthday
-Most career Super Bowl completions (100)

Brady's surpassed -or is on an easy pace to surpass- nearly every statistical category held by the two guys largely considered as two of the best ever. He's done it with average talent at best that made guys like Sharpe and Rice look even better than they were, and he still has a handful of years left.

Now it's time for him to go 11-for-25 with 2 interceptions next Sunday night.

Rob Lowe is Now Breaking NFL News

Yes, that Rob Lowe. Today on Twitter he said this:

"Hearing my fave, #18 Peyton Manning will not return to #NFL. Wow"

Then he asked NFL Network analyst Rich Eisen: "My people are saying Manning will retire today. What do you hear?"

"Colts fans, let's hope my info is wrong. Don't like being wrong, but this time... I'm hoping."

So Rob Lowe now has "people." Maybe it's this guy, a costar on his tv show, Parks and Rec?

To be fair to the former White House speech writer, he was the first person Colts owner Jim Irsay followed on Twitter. So maybe they have some sort of relationship. No way, though.

And No Way says Manning's dad, Archie, to ESPN guy Chris Mortensen:

"Archie Manning laughed when he heard @RobLowe said Peyton will retire, “Noooo…he ain’t retiring. I think he would’ve told me.”"

How long until ESPN has "sources say Manning to retire" on their bottom ticker? 

Of course Rob Lowe doesn't have any NFL "people." But he does have a Lifetime movie coming out this Saturday that nobody but women over the age of 40 knew about, so I guess it worked. White House speech writer, personal PR man. Rob Lowe can do it all.

(Insert Andrew Luck Pun Here)

It seemed inevitable that the Colts would be staring down an opportunity to draft Andrew Luck in April's NFL draft. Did you really think the Browns, when given a chance to really be rewarded for being bad -something they've been great at for well, ever- would really be the best bad team when it mattered most? Of course not. The football gods wouldn't allow it.

So now I'll take a totally 100% original angle and discuss what the Colts should do with that No. 1 pick. Peyton Manning is 35 with four years remaining on a 5-year, $90 million contract. He gets around $23 million the next two seasons and around $10 a year the final two seasons.

The contract, which was signed last summer, made him the richest player in the game and was one of the biggest contracts of all time. Not an awesome move by the Colts considering his age, but understandable considering he's one of the five best quarterbacks of all time. It's not a contract you give to a 35-year old free agent but perfectly fine considering what Manning has done in Indianapolis since 1998.

But if what they say is true -and it is- that this is a business, it's time to tell Manning just that and send him on his way. Manning isn't coming off a leg or arm injury. He had cervical spinal surgery, and that sounds painful. He can probably get back to pain-free activities by next fall and be back to his normal self -or close to it- for the next couple of years. But can you say he's not one awkward hit or facemask away from being shelved for good? Of course not, and I don't think anyone can say that.

So you have a 35 year old quarterback who's already played 13 seasons and you're paying him the most money of any player in the history of the sport. For reference, here's how many years a few fellow Hall of Fame quarterbacks played:

Joe Montana: 13 years with the 49'ers, 2 with Kansas City
Steve Young: 13 years with the 49'ers, 2 with Tampa Bay
Troy Aikman: 12 years with the Cowboys
Jim Kelly: 11 years with the Bills

The odds say Manning has a few years left at best. Throw in the neck injury and it's any one's guess, and with $67 million still owed to him, keeping him for the remainder of his contract looks like a terrible business decision at this point.You can't cut a Hall of Famer like Manning 1 year into a 5-year deal and act like nothing happened, but his injury -as well as having the chance to draft the best quarterback prospect in ages- gives the Colts plenty of reasons to release Manning and not look bush league. Players hold out and teams cut them at any point, it's the way of the NFL world.

And while Manning is one of the best ever, it's fair to say he's won as many Super Bowls as Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer. His little brother Eli has as many Super Bowl rings as he does. Not to say any of the guys are anywhere near Peyton's ability, but his talents aren't bringing the Colts Super Bowl after Super Bowl, and it's hard to imagine a 36 or 37 year old Manning hoisting another Lombardi Trophy before retiring -on his own will or not.

So if he's not going to win another Super Bowl, what exactly are the Colts gaining with 3-4 more years of Manning at $18 million a season?

Andrew Luck won't be as good as Peyton Manning. He won't go to 11 Pro Bowls and he probably won't be a first ballot Hall of Famer.

But 10 years of Luck looks a lot better (and cheaper) than 3 or 4 years of a late-30's Manning.

Winners and Losers

Of course everyone saw the Lions sitting at 4-0 ready to play on Monday Night Football. Of course.

Winners

The NFC North: The Packers are 5-0 for the first time in 46 years or something. Aaron Rodgers is no worst than the 2nd best quarterback in the league, and it's obvious his constant winning since last December is irritating Brett Favre, which is a plus. The Lions have survived 3 games to start 4-0 and are preparing to play the Bears tonight on Monday Night Football. The rushing game is non-existent, this is all about the receiver they call Megatron. The Bears aren't terrible, either.

The SEC West: One of these years we're going to have a BCS title game without an SEC team, I can feel it. 2011 doesn't look to be one of those years though. LSU and Alabama are No. 1 and 2 in the latest AP polls and obviously, one of them will lose when they play this season. The winner of that Nov. 5 matchup will have a clear path to another title.
Here's LSU's remaining schedule after the Alabama game:
-Western Kentucky
-@ Ole Miss
-No. 10 Arkansas

and Alabama:
-@Mississippi State
-Georgia Southern
-@ No. 24 Auburn.

Kudos to both AD's for scheduling Western Kentucky and Georgia Southern late in the season, giving their teams a nice off week to stay sharp for the homestretch. That's why they win.

Indianapolis Colts: Stay with me here. The Colts have had the most consistent -and oftentimes best- quarterback play with Peyton Manning for the last decade. The one year he sits out due to injury just so happens to be the same year the best quarterback prospect of the last 15 years is available. The Colts are 0-5 with 3 straight road games coming up. There's a good chance their first win doesn't come until Nov. 13. And if that happens, there's a good chance they end up with the No. 1 pick in next year's draft. One of these teams will have the first pick:
-Colts (0-5)
-Dolphins (0-4)
-Vikings (1-4)
-Rams (0-4)
-Cardinals (1-4)

The Colts and Rams have looked the worst. The Rams won't draft Luck, so I could see them trading out of the first slot, leaving Indy two chances at nabbing Luck and letting him become Aaron Rodgers 2.0. That just wouldn't be fair.

Losers

The Border War: The Kansas defense might end up being the worst of all time. Last week against Oklahoma State, Mike Gundy pulled the starters in the 1st half. He could have put 100 on KU if he wanted but he let his walk-ons only tack on 14 in the second half, winning 70-28. The defense is giving up 49 points a game and is getting worse, if that's possible. And if you believe in rumors from anonymous sources, there's this:

"Informed sources tell Football Rumor Mill that, even though Kansas head coach Turner Gill has a significant buyout on his contract, he could well be unemployed at season’s end. It seems AD Sheahon Zenger is running out of patience with his predecessor’s last hire" 

Then there's Missouri. After trying desperately to get a Big 10 invite last year, they're trying again this time around for the SEC. The talks definitely seem much farther along than last summer, but the longer things drag out, the more you have to wonder if Mizzou will get left at the altar again. Leaking quotes that the SEC isn't your first choice can't help things at all.

"One Mizzou source has told the AP that the Big Ten remains the school’s top choice, but Jim Delany’s league "“has no interest"" and about the SEC, he said."" That’s what’s left,”" the person said referring to the SEC."

And while the Tigers try to join the SEC West (Alabama, LSU, Auburn etc.), they're having trouble in the Big 12. At 2-3, a bowl game is no longer a foregone conclusion.

The Eagles: The Dream Team is more of a nightmare at this point. Hopefully people are realizing Michael Vick is nothing more than a good quarterback who's never done anything of merit in the playoffs. From a sexy Superbowl pick to 1-3, I'm not sure what the problem is, but it couldn't have happened to a nicer group of fans.

Ron Zook: Can't get out of his own way

.

Long Time No See

My old blog is no more, kind of. If you want to read any older posts you still can over there. If you want to know why I'm here now, leave a comment. (Page hits, people.)

Thanks to the steroid era, baseball's 500 Club has lost a lot of luster. Luckily, it's not the only 500 landmark in sports.

-There's 25 members of baseball's 500 club. 10 of those players played in the steroid era, and everyone in that group was either A) caught using steroids B) caught lying about steroids C) forgot English when asked about steroids, or D) suspected of using steroids at some point. Except this guy.

-Only 11 NFL quarterbacks have thrown for 500+ yards in a single game.
      -Dan Marino and Tom Brady make sense. Vince Ferragamo had me clicking on google, and what do you know, he has his own website. Not only that, but there's actually a Vince Ferragamo fan club. That's right. For only $30.00 you get an autographed photo, a Vince Ferragamo button, and an autographed letter thanking you for that $30.00. I'd pay Vince $30.00 just to see how many people are actually in his fan club.

-The Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates have combined for 2 seasons over .500 since 1993. The Red Sox have accomplished the feat 16 times in that span. The Yankees 19.

-2 pitchers, Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera have over 500 saves. Rivera now has 603, two more than Hoffman. No active player is within 170 of the 500 mark.

-The Indy 500 and Daytona 500 are the only races Americans remotely care about.

That's all for now.