College Basketball Math

College basketball polls in December are as meaningful as September baseball in Pittsburgh. On a good day.

But when the AP poll can tell you exactly which team will cut down the nets in April, it might as well be Grays Sports Almanac from Back to the Future II. Here's the latest AP poll, released every Monday:

1) Syracuse
2) Ohio State
3) Kentucky
4) Louisville
5) North Carolina
6) Baylor
7) Duke
8) Xavier
9) Connecticut
10) Missouri
11) Marquette

I only have the top 11 because excluding Syracuse in 2003, (Carmelo Anthony ain't walking through that door) every championship team of the last 15 years has been in the top 11 in the AP poll in week 6. The last 15 champions have also been from BCS conferences, so say goodbye to Xavier.

Syracuse
Ohio State
Kentucky
Louisville
North Carolina
Baylor
Duke
Connecticut
Missouri
Marquette

Fourteen of the last 15 winners had also been to a Final Four within the last seven seasons. That takes care of Marquette, Missouri, Baylor and Syracuse. We're left with:

Ohio State
Kentucky
Louisville
North Carolina
Duke
Connecticut

National title winners also have great guard play. Some are lottery picks and solid NBA players like Richard Hamilton and Shane Battier. Some never sniff NBA playing time like Duke's Jon Scheyer and Florida's Lee Humphrey. But they were all great in college. Humphrey never really missed from beyond the arc.

Ohio State has Aaron Craft. I got a chance to watch him play last Saturday, and he's the best guard I've seen this year. He's smooth on offense and a pest on defense. He's grabbed at least 3 steals in 6 games this season and is averaging 9 points and 5 assists.

Kentucky has 3 perimeter guys -Michael Gilchrist, Marquis Teague and Doron Lamb- who will be in the NBA sooner rather than later. Any one of the trio can take over a game, but Lamb is the only experienced Wildcat. And he's only a sophomore. Kentucky has enough talent to win it all but when they don't, a lack of experience will be the reason.

Many experts, including the guys at Rivals.com, have North Carolina guard Kendall Marshall as one of the nation's best point guards.

Duke has Austin Rivers, who's cockiness might only be matched by his ability to make defenders look really, really bad.

Shabazz Napier of Connecticut has stepped out of former 1st team All-American Kemba Walker's shadow and is quietly getting 15 points and 6 assists a game.

Louisville's Peyton Siva is good, but not quite on the same level as the players above.

That leaves us with:

Ohio State
Kentucky
North Carolina
Duke
Connecticut

Repeating as champs -even with the same roster- is a tall order. Losing a unanimous 1st team All-American will make Uconn's hopes futile.

Ohio State
Kentucky
North Carolina
Duke

For John Calipari and Kentucky, winning a title with as many freshman as he plays every year will be tough as well. And Calipari is quietly gaining a reputation as a terrible late-game coach. In the 2008 championship game against Kansas, he was up 3 with 10 seconds left. He said he wanted to foul to avoid Kansas attempting a 3. Didn't happen.

On Saturday against Indiana, Calipari and No. 1 Kentucky were up 2 with 5 seconds left. He said he wanted to foul to avoid Indiana attempting a 3 (not sure why you foul up 2, but he's the pro, not me). Didn't happen.

I'm not betting on Calipari and a group of freshman to win it all, ever. Moving on..

Ohio State
North Carolina
Duke

North Carolina and Duke have a 4:1 edge in titles over the entire Big 10 the last 15 years. Advantage: ACC

North Carolina
Duke

The average ranking of the eventual champion in the AP's week 6 poll the last 15 years? 5th.

The 5th ranked team this week?

Winners and Losers

Of course everyone saw the Lions sitting at 4-0 ready to play on Monday Night Football. Of course.

Winners

The NFC North: The Packers are 5-0 for the first time in 46 years or something. Aaron Rodgers is no worst than the 2nd best quarterback in the league, and it's obvious his constant winning since last December is irritating Brett Favre, which is a plus. The Lions have survived 3 games to start 4-0 and are preparing to play the Bears tonight on Monday Night Football. The rushing game is non-existent, this is all about the receiver they call Megatron. The Bears aren't terrible, either.

The SEC West: One of these years we're going to have a BCS title game without an SEC team, I can feel it. 2011 doesn't look to be one of those years though. LSU and Alabama are No. 1 and 2 in the latest AP polls and obviously, one of them will lose when they play this season. The winner of that Nov. 5 matchup will have a clear path to another title.
Here's LSU's remaining schedule after the Alabama game:
-Western Kentucky
-@ Ole Miss
-No. 10 Arkansas

and Alabama:
-@Mississippi State
-Georgia Southern
-@ No. 24 Auburn.

Kudos to both AD's for scheduling Western Kentucky and Georgia Southern late in the season, giving their teams a nice off week to stay sharp for the homestretch. That's why they win.

Indianapolis Colts: Stay with me here. The Colts have had the most consistent -and oftentimes best- quarterback play with Peyton Manning for the last decade. The one year he sits out due to injury just so happens to be the same year the best quarterback prospect of the last 15 years is available. The Colts are 0-5 with 3 straight road games coming up. There's a good chance their first win doesn't come until Nov. 13. And if that happens, there's a good chance they end up with the No. 1 pick in next year's draft. One of these teams will have the first pick:
-Colts (0-5)
-Dolphins (0-4)
-Vikings (1-4)
-Rams (0-4)
-Cardinals (1-4)

The Colts and Rams have looked the worst. The Rams won't draft Luck, so I could see them trading out of the first slot, leaving Indy two chances at nabbing Luck and letting him become Aaron Rodgers 2.0. That just wouldn't be fair.

Losers

The Border War: The Kansas defense might end up being the worst of all time. Last week against Oklahoma State, Mike Gundy pulled the starters in the 1st half. He could have put 100 on KU if he wanted but he let his walk-ons only tack on 14 in the second half, winning 70-28. The defense is giving up 49 points a game and is getting worse, if that's possible. And if you believe in rumors from anonymous sources, there's this:

"Informed sources tell Football Rumor Mill that, even though Kansas head coach Turner Gill has a significant buyout on his contract, he could well be unemployed at season’s end. It seems AD Sheahon Zenger is running out of patience with his predecessor’s last hire" 

Then there's Missouri. After trying desperately to get a Big 10 invite last year, they're trying again this time around for the SEC. The talks definitely seem much farther along than last summer, but the longer things drag out, the more you have to wonder if Mizzou will get left at the altar again. Leaking quotes that the SEC isn't your first choice can't help things at all.

"One Mizzou source has told the AP that the Big Ten remains the school’s top choice, but Jim Delany’s league "“has no interest"" and about the SEC, he said."" That’s what’s left,”" the person said referring to the SEC."

And while the Tigers try to join the SEC West (Alabama, LSU, Auburn etc.), they're having trouble in the Big 12. At 2-3, a bowl game is no longer a foregone conclusion.

The Eagles: The Dream Team is more of a nightmare at this point. Hopefully people are realizing Michael Vick is nothing more than a good quarterback who's never done anything of merit in the playoffs. From a sexy Superbowl pick to 1-3, I'm not sure what the problem is, but it couldn't have happened to a nicer group of fans.

Ron Zook: Can't get out of his own way

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