College Basketball Math

College basketball polls in December are as meaningful as September baseball in Pittsburgh. On a good day.

But when the AP poll can tell you exactly which team will cut down the nets in April, it might as well be Grays Sports Almanac from Back to the Future II. Here's the latest AP poll, released every Monday:

1) Syracuse
2) Ohio State
3) Kentucky
4) Louisville
5) North Carolina
6) Baylor
7) Duke
8) Xavier
9) Connecticut
10) Missouri
11) Marquette

I only have the top 11 because excluding Syracuse in 2003, (Carmelo Anthony ain't walking through that door) every championship team of the last 15 years has been in the top 11 in the AP poll in week 6. The last 15 champions have also been from BCS conferences, so say goodbye to Xavier.

Syracuse
Ohio State
Kentucky
Louisville
North Carolina
Baylor
Duke
Connecticut
Missouri
Marquette

Fourteen of the last 15 winners had also been to a Final Four within the last seven seasons. That takes care of Marquette, Missouri, Baylor and Syracuse. We're left with:

Ohio State
Kentucky
Louisville
North Carolina
Duke
Connecticut

National title winners also have great guard play. Some are lottery picks and solid NBA players like Richard Hamilton and Shane Battier. Some never sniff NBA playing time like Duke's Jon Scheyer and Florida's Lee Humphrey. But they were all great in college. Humphrey never really missed from beyond the arc.

Ohio State has Aaron Craft. I got a chance to watch him play last Saturday, and he's the best guard I've seen this year. He's smooth on offense and a pest on defense. He's grabbed at least 3 steals in 6 games this season and is averaging 9 points and 5 assists.

Kentucky has 3 perimeter guys -Michael Gilchrist, Marquis Teague and Doron Lamb- who will be in the NBA sooner rather than later. Any one of the trio can take over a game, but Lamb is the only experienced Wildcat. And he's only a sophomore. Kentucky has enough talent to win it all but when they don't, a lack of experience will be the reason.

Many experts, including the guys at Rivals.com, have North Carolina guard Kendall Marshall as one of the nation's best point guards.

Duke has Austin Rivers, who's cockiness might only be matched by his ability to make defenders look really, really bad.

Shabazz Napier of Connecticut has stepped out of former 1st team All-American Kemba Walker's shadow and is quietly getting 15 points and 6 assists a game.

Louisville's Peyton Siva is good, but not quite on the same level as the players above.

That leaves us with:

Ohio State
Kentucky
North Carolina
Duke
Connecticut

Repeating as champs -even with the same roster- is a tall order. Losing a unanimous 1st team All-American will make Uconn's hopes futile.

Ohio State
Kentucky
North Carolina
Duke

For John Calipari and Kentucky, winning a title with as many freshman as he plays every year will be tough as well. And Calipari is quietly gaining a reputation as a terrible late-game coach. In the 2008 championship game against Kansas, he was up 3 with 10 seconds left. He said he wanted to foul to avoid Kansas attempting a 3. Didn't happen.

On Saturday against Indiana, Calipari and No. 1 Kentucky were up 2 with 5 seconds left. He said he wanted to foul to avoid Indiana attempting a 3 (not sure why you foul up 2, but he's the pro, not me). Didn't happen.

I'm not betting on Calipari and a group of freshman to win it all, ever. Moving on..

Ohio State
North Carolina
Duke

North Carolina and Duke have a 4:1 edge in titles over the entire Big 10 the last 15 years. Advantage: ACC

North Carolina
Duke

The average ranking of the eventual champion in the AP's week 6 poll the last 15 years? 5th.

The 5th ranked team this week?

Big 12 Predictions

I wrote this column today for the paper. I figured I would elaborate more on here where I'm safe from word counts, editors, and anyone who wouldn't let me reference Anthony Davis' unibrow.

The Big 12 is down this year, no doubt about it. Kansas doesn't look like Kansas, Baylor is still looking for a point guard and nearly everyone else would be happy with just an NCAA tournament appearance. Here's how the teams will finish:

Baylor: The Bears are loaded in the frontcourt, led by 6-foot-11 sophomore forward Perry Jones III, who shocked experts when he bypassed the NBA draft and returned for a second season in Waco. Senior forward Quincy Acy averaged 12.4 points per game last year and five-star recruit Quincy Miller joins both players down low. Good point guard play could take the Bears to New Orleans and the Final Four, and that looks to be coming from two newcomers. Highly-touted JUCO transfer Pierre Jackson will get his shot, but how many JUCO transfers make immediate impacts at the high division I level? I can't think of any. Four-star recruit Deuce Bello should also be good, and one of those guys will have to be consistently productive if the Bears want to upend Kansas. Whatever happens, Baylor will have the most athletic team on the court every single game this year. Some of the most athletic guys I've seen in a long time.

Kansas: The seven-year run of Big 12 regular season titles has to end eventually. With a thin frontcourt and only one seasoned veteran guard in the backcourt with senior Tyshawn Taylor, the Jayhawks will struggle with scoring at times. There’s still talent there, though. And last time I checked, Bill Self is still the coach and they still play in Allen Fieldhouse. Another conference title wouldn’t shock many people. The thing with Kansas is, if you switched their roster and coach with Baylor's, the Bears would be overwhelming favorites to win the conference this year. Say what you will about Bill Self's March upsets, the guy knows how to win the Big 12. And he doesn't lose in Lawrence, either. He's coached 8 seasons at Kansas and has 7 home losses. A lot of that home-court advantage begins before the game even starts. ESPN's Jason King calls it the best pregame ritual in college hoops, and I tend to agree.

Texas A&M: The Aggies return six of their eight leading scorers and junior forward Khris Middleton will vie for All-Big 12 honors this season. Returning senior point guard Dash Harris will also be huge for the Aggies, who look to make their 7th consecutive NCAA tournament appearance. 

Texas: They’re young, no doubt. But junior guard J’Covan Brown is the real deal and with the departure of Dogus Balbay, who seemed to always have the ball in his hands, Brown will get plenty of chances to score. High school All-American Myck Kabongo joins the Longhorns, creating quite the duo with Brown on the perimeter. Unfortunately, Texas fans won't see how this team comes together this season because Texas fans don't know they have a basketball team. Home games in Austin look like an early June day game between the Marlins and Nationals.

Oklahoma State: Upperclassmen guards Keiton Paige and Jean-Paul Olukemi both average double figures in career scoring. High school All-American LeBryan Nash is a scoring machine on the wing and will be great when he adjusts to the college level. But back to Keiton Page. I'm still trying to figure out how he plays basketball in the Big 12. He's 5-foot-6 on a good day.

Iowa State: The Cyclones are the toughest team to predict here because head coach Fred Hoiberg welcomes in a slew of transfers. Chemistry will be an issue but talent is there, including former Michigan State guard Chris Allen and former Minnesota forward Royce White. Look for the Cyclones to be gelling by January. Hoiberg grew up in Ames and played four seasons at Iowa State in the early 1990's. He was nicknamed "The Mayor" after receiving a handful of votes in the 1993 Ames mayoral election, and it's the best nickname in college sports.

Missouri: If head coach Mike Anderson hadn’t left and senior forward Laurence Bowers hadn’t suffered an injury that ended the season for him, the Tigers would be a top-three contender this year. But that’s not the case. With a new system and without its best interior defender, Missouri will struggle to guard anyone down low this season. 

For some reason, I always enjoy when players call out their fans. It removes the invisible wall sometimes placed between fans and coaches, and it's nice to know they know the fans are there. Or aren't there, in Missouri's case. Senior guard Kim English voiced his displeasure on twitter after Missouri's recent win over Mercer: "Love the 5,769 people who were at the game to DEATH!! Thank YOU guys so much. 53-3 at home in our careers and empty seats?" 

It reminds of a time last season when I sat behind two Kansas football players on a bus who used plenty of four-letter words to voice their displeasure of the football beat writer who picked them to lose by 40 every week in the paper. If they didn't run about 6-foot-3, 290 pounds I would have introduced myself.

Kansas State: The loss of Jacob Pullen will really hurt Frank Martin’s club this year. Junior guard Rodney McGruder and senior forward Jamar Samuels will lead the Wildcats, who will have the talent advantage in Big 12 games exactly four times this season: each pair of games against the two following teams. 

Oklahoma: Lon Kruger is a great coach, but this Oklahoma roster is pretty bad. It will take a year or two before Kruger will have any success down in Norman. 

Texas Tech: Red Raider coach Billy Gillispie is in the same position as Kruger; a good coach who inherited a really bad roster. Both coaches will need time to recruit.

That's it for now.